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Verlässlichkeit der EU-Methode zur Schätzung des Produktionspotenzials in Deutschland

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  • Steffen Henzel
  • Claire Thürwächter

Abstract

Seit 2012 steht die Produktionslücke im Zentrum der Regelbindung der Fiskalpolitik in der Europäischen Union im Rahmen des Fiskalpakts. Die Schätzwerte für die Produktionslücke legen den finanzpolitischen Spielraum fest, unter dem sich die Mitgliedsländer verschulden dürfen. Der Artikel nimmt eine erste Abschätzung der bisherigen Umsetzung der EU-Methode für Deutschland für die Jahre 2010 bis 2015 vor und liefert erste Hinweise, inwiefern die derzeitige Methode als bindende Regel für die Fiskalpolitik geeignet ist.

Suggested Citation

  • Steffen Henzel & Claire Thürwächter, 2015. "Verlässlichkeit der EU-Methode zur Schätzung des Produktionspotenzials in Deutschland," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(18), pages 18-24, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:68:y:2015:i:18:p:18-24
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cécile Denis & Daniel Grenouilleau & Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner Röger, 2006. "Calculating potential growth rates and output gaps - A revised production function approach," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 247, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H & Wright, Jonathan H, 2005. "News and Noise in G-7 GDP Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 403-419, June.
    3. Francesca D'Auria & Cécile Denis & Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roger & Alessandro Rossi, 2010. "The production function methodology for calculating potential growth rates and output gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 420, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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    Cited by:

    1. Breuer, Sebastian & Elstner, Steffen, 2017. "Die Wachstumsperspektiven der deutschen Wirtschaft vor dem Hintergrund des demografischen Wandels: Die Mittelfristprojektion des Sachverständigenrates," Working Papers 07/2017, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    2. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2015. "Zukunftsfähigkeit in den Mittelpunkt. Jahresgutachten 2015/16 [Focus on Future Viability. Annual Report 2015/16]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201516, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Produktionspotenzial; Produktionsfunktion; Schätzung; Haushaltskonsolidierung; Finanzpolitik; EU-Europäisch; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production

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