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Aus Befragungsdaten zusammengesetzte Frühindikatoren - Adäquate Bauweise und prognostische Aussagekraft

Author

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  • Georg Goldrian

Abstract

Die ifo Befragungen zeichnen sich durch eine breite Abdeckung der Wirtschaft nach Bereichen, Branchen und Produkten sowie durch weitere, vielfach in die Zukunft gerichtete Sachverhalte aus. Daraus ergibt sich eine ganze Reihe von leistungsstarken Frühindikatoren. Ihre prognostische Aussagekraft gewinnt noch an Prägnanz, wenn sie zu einem zusammengesetzten Indikator verbunden werden. Diese Daten zusammen mit den von der GfK bei Verbrauchern erhobenen Informationen ermöglichen Ansätze aus ausschließlich qualitativen Variablen, die früh und zuverlässig die Entwicklung der wirtschaftlichen Lage signalisieren. Der Versuch, mit quantitativen Frühindikatoren diese Ansätze noch weiter zu verbessern, gelingt nur sehr eingeschränkt.

Suggested Citation

  • Georg Goldrian, 2001. "Aus Befragungsdaten zusammengesetzte Frühindikatoren - Adäquate Bauweise und prognostische Aussagekraft," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(22), pages 32-36, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:54:y:2001:i:22:p:32-36
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2001_22_5pdf.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hüfner, Felix P. & Schröder, Michael, 2001. "Unternehmens- versus Analystenbefragungen: Zum Prognosegehalt von ifo-Geschäftserwartungen und ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen," ZEW Discussion Papers 01-04, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    2. G. Goldrian & J.D. Lindbauer & G. Nerb & B. Ulrich, 2001. "Evaluation and development of confidence indicators based on harmonised business and consumer surveys (Study contracted to IFO, Munich)," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 151, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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    Cited by:

    1. Georg Goldrian, 2004. "Ein Frühindikator für die Entwicklung des Bruttoinlandsprodukts," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(07), pages 41-43, April.
    2. Hinze, Jorg, 2003. "Prognoseleistung von Fruhindikatoren: Die Bedeutung von Fruhindikatoren fur Konjunk-turprognosen - Eine Analyse fur Deutschland," Discussion Paper Series 26253, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunkturindikator; Konjunkturprognose; Volkswirtschaft;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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