IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/oxdevs/v33y2005i3-4p417-426.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

AIDS, Economic Growth and the Epidemic Trap in Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Couderc
  • Bruno Ventelou

Abstract

Most studies find that AIDS has a relatively weak impact on economic growth because they assume that it affects only one flow variable and only in the short term (the flow of labour available and capable of working at a time t in the economy). But AIDS also has a long-term impact on stock variables that existing models do not take into account, specifically, on both human and physical capital. Integrating these two impacts in a growth model with multiple accumulation factors reverses the findings of standard impact evaluations. A fairly wide range of epidemic effects modifies the economy's long-term growth regime, creating what we might call an epidemic or regressive “trap”. Government action should be designed in view of this risk and should intervene preferentially in favour of human capital, through health and educational spending. Finally, this model changes the cost-efficiency calculations about expanding antiretroviral therapies to a large part of the working population and indicates that such treatment is substantially more cost-efficient than initially thought.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Couderc & Bruno Ventelou, 2005. "AIDS, Economic Growth and the Epidemic Trap in Africa," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3-4), pages 417-426.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:oxdevs:v:33:y:2005:i:3-4:p:417-426
    DOI: 10.1080/13600810500199236
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13600810500199236
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/13600810500199236?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Markus Haacker, 2002. "Modeling the Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS," IMF Working Papers 2002/195, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Couderc & Nicolas Drouhin & Bruno Ventelou, 2006. "SIDA et croissance économique : le risque d'une « trappe épidémiologique »," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 116(5), pages 697-715.
    2. Arshia Amiri & Ulf-g Gerdtham & Bruno Ventelou, 2012. "HIV/AIDS-GDP Nexus? Evidence from panel-data for African countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 1060-1067.
    3. Jamiu Adetola Odugbesan & Husam Rjoub, 2019. "Relationship among HIV/AIDS Prevalence, Human Capital, Good Governance, and Sustainable Development: Empirical Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-17, March.
    4. Shu-Chen Chang & Teng-Yu Chang, 2012. "Threshold Effects of Economic Growth on Air Pollution under Regimes of Corruption," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 1046-1059.
    5. Jean-Paul Moatti & Bruno Ventelou, 2009. "Économie de la santé dans les pays en développement des paradigmes en mutation," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 60(2), pages 241-256.
    6. Bidzha, Mashudu Lucas & Ngepah, Nicholas & Greyling, Talita, 2024. "The impact of antiretroviral treatment on the relationship between HIV/AIDS and economic growth," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 368-387.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicolas Couderc & Nicolas Drouhin & Bruno Ventelou, 2006. "SIDA et croissance économique : le risque d'une « trappe épidémiologique »," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 116(5), pages 697-715.
    2. Abdelhamid Moustabchir & Hicham Ouakil, 2023. "Vaccination, treatment and containment policy to reduce the effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic in Morocco," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 35(4), pages 351-364, December.
    3. Jose Cuesta, 2010. "How much of a threat to economic growth is a mature AIDS epidemic?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(24), pages 3077-3089.
    4. José Cuesta, 2008. "¿Una epidemia de SIDA en su etapa madura es una amenaza para el crecimiento?," Research Department Publications 4568, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    5. Annim, Samuel Kobina & Dasmani, Isaac, 2010. "The joint effect of human capital and income inequalities on HIV/AIDS prevalence: An exploratory investigation," MPRA Paper 21251, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Donald Kemajou Njatang, 2021. "Impact économique de la COVID‐19 au Cameroun: Les résultats du modèle SIR‐macro," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(S1), pages 126-138, April.
    7. Garima Malik, 2006. "An Examination of the Relationship between Health and Economic Growth," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22173, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    8. Louise Roos, 2013. "Modelling the impact of HIV/AIDS: A literature review," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-233, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    9. Sulkhan Tabaghua, 2022. "Fiscal Rules and Post-Pandemic (Covid19) Economic Recovery," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 13215677, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    10. Mr. Brou E Aka & Mr. Bernardin Akitoby & Mr. Amor Tahari & Mr. Dhaneshwar Ghura, 2004. "Sources of Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2004/176, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Mabugu, Ramos E. & Maisonnave, Helene & Henseler, Martin & Chitiga-Mabugu, Margaret & Makochekanwa, Albert, 2023. "Implications of COVID-19 and mitigation measures on gender and the Zimbabwean economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    12. Mohamed, Issam A.W., 2011. "Surveying HIV/AIDS Incidence in Sudan," MPRA Paper 31781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Tsegaye T Gatiso & Isabel Ordaz-Németh & Trokon Grimes & Menladi Lormie & Clement Tweh & Hjalmar S Kühl & Jessica Junker, 2018. "The impact of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic on agricultural production and livelihoods in Liberia," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(8), pages 1-17, August.
    14. Deborah Johnston, 2008. "Bias, Not Error: Assessments of the Economic Impact of HIV/AIDS Using Evidence from Micro Studies in Sub-Saharan Africa," Feminist Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 87-115.
    15. Ian M. Trotter & Lu'is A. C. Schmidt & Bruno C. M. Pinto & Andrezza L. Batista & J'essica Pellenz & Maritza Isidro & Aline Rodrigues & Attawan G. S. Suela & Loredany Rodrigues, 2020. "COVID-19 and Global Economic Growth: Policy Simulations with a Pandemic-Enabled Neoclassical Growth Model," Papers 2005.13722, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
    16. José Cuesta, 2008. "Does a Mature AIDS Epidemic Threaten Growth?," Research Department Publications 4567, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    17. Thurlow, James & Wobst, Peter, 2004. "The road to pro-poor growth in Zambia: past lessons and future challenges," DSGD discussion papers 16, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    18. José Cuesta, 2008. "Does a Mature AIDS Epidemic Threaten Growth?," Research Department Publications 4567, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:oxdevs:v:33:y:2005:i:3-4:p:417-426. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CODS20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.