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Geographical variability of sprucebark beetle development under climate change in the Czech Republic

Author

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  • T. Hlásny

    (National Forest Centre - Forest Research Institute Zvolen, Zvolen, Slovakia
    Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague, Czech Republic)

  • L. Zajíčková

    (Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague, Czech Republic)

  • M. Turčáni

    (Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague, Czech Republic)

  • J. Holuša

    (Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague, Czech Republic
    Forestry and Game Management Research Institute, Jíloviště-Strnady, Czech Republic)

  • Z. Sitková

    (National Forest Centre - Forest Research Institute Zvolen, Zvolen, Slovakia)

Abstract

Climate change is expected to influence the distribution and population dynamics of many insect pests, with potential severe impacts on forests. Spruce bark beetle Ips typographus (L.) (Col.: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) is the most important forest insect pest in Europe whose development is strictly regulated by air temperature. Therefore, climate change is anticipated to induce changes in the pest's distribution and development. We used the PHENIPS model to evaluate climate change impacts on the distribution and voltinism of spruce bark beetle in the Czech Republic. Two future time periods - 2025-2050 (near future) and 2075-2100 (distant future) - are addressed. The period 1961-1990 is used as the reference. We found that while a two-generation regime dominated in the Czech Republic in the reference period, significant three-generation regime regions are projected to appear in the near future. In the distant future, the three-generation regime can be expected to occur over all existing coniferous stands in the Czech Republic. The analysis of altitudinal shift of n-generation regime regions indicates noticeable expansion of Ips typographus development to higher elevations, leading for example to disappearance of one-generation regime regions in the distant future. Uncertainties and limitations of the presented findings are discussed as well.

Suggested Citation

  • T. Hlásny & L. Zajíčková & M. Turčáni & J. Holuša & Z. Sitková, 2011. "Geographical variability of sprucebark beetle development under climate change in the Czech Republic," Journal of Forest Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 57(6), pages 242-249.
    • Handle: RePEc:caa:jnljfs:v:57:y:2011:i:6:id:104-2010-jfs
    DOI: 10.17221/104/2010-JFS
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Trnka, M. & Muška, F. & Semerádová, D. & Dubrovský, M. & Kocmánková, E. & Žalud, Z., 2007. "European Corn Borer life stage model: Regional estimates of pest development and spatial distribution under present and future climate," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 61-84.
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