IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bus/jphile/v10y2017i2n2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

‘Growth in a Time of Debt’ as an example of the logical-positivist science

Author

Listed:
  • Mariusz MAZIARZ

    (Wroclaw University of Economics (Wroclaw, Poland))

Abstract

The paper addresses the question whether the nowinfamous piece of econometric research conducted by Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) that set the threshold hypothesis in the relation between public debt and economic growth was conducted in accordance with the neopositivist doctrine. The article consists of two parts. First, the epistemic advice given by logical positivism is reconstructed and operationalized. Second, the cliometric method employed by Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) is analyzed. The answer to the research question is affirmative. ‘Growth in a Time of Debt’ is a piece of logical-positivist science because (1) the research is data-based and aimed at confirming the results, (2) its authors are committed to the neopositivist theory-observation distinction, (3) its goal is describing an empirical generalization and the result’s interpretations suggest that (4) Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) understand causality in a reductionist way, as a constant conjunction.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariusz MAZIARZ, 2017. "‘Growth in a Time of Debt’ as an example of the logical-positivist science," The Journal of Philosophical Economics, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, The Journal of Philosophical Economics, vol. 10(2), pages 47-64, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bus:jphile:v:10:y:2017:i:2:n:2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://jpe.ro/pdf.php?id=7788
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://jpe.ro/?id=revista&p=446
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Goldfarb, 1997. "Now you see it, now you don't: emerging contrary results in economics," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 221-244.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2012. "Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 69-86, Summer.
    3. Robert Goldfarb, 1995. "The economist-as-audience needs a methodology of plausible inference," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 201-222.
    4. Terence Hutchison, 2000. "On the Methodology of Economics and the Formalist Revolution," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1719.
    5. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    6. Thomas Herndon & Michael Ash & Robert Pollin, 2014. "Does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhart and Rogoff," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 38(2), pages 257-279.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    8. Mariusz Maziarz, 2015. "A review of the Granger-causality fallacy," The Journal of Philosophical Economics, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, The Journal of Philosophical Economics, vol. 8(2), May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mariusz Maziarz, 2019. "The unrealistic realist philosophy. The ontology of econometrics revisited," The Journal of Philosophical Economics, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, The Journal of Philosophical Economics, vol. 13(1), pages 39-64, November.
    2. İbrahim Özmen & Mihai Mutascu, 2024. "Public Debt and Growth: New Insights," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 8706-8736, June.
    3. Janice Boucher Breuer & John McDermott, 2019. "Debt And Depression," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(4), pages 714-730, October.
    4. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3l2vounfl99nvqsr0k24sn3k5l is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Yannis Dafermos, 2015. "The ‘other half’ of the public debt–economic growth relationship: a note on Reinhart and Rogoff," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 20-28, April.
    6. Balázs Égert, 2015. "Public debt, economic growth and nonlinear effects: Myth or reality?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 226-238.
    7. De Vita, Glauco & Trachanas, Emmanouil & Luo, Yun, 2018. "Revisiting the bi-directional causality between debt and growth: Evidence from linear and nonlinear tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 55-74.
    8. Bitar, Nicholas & Chakrabarti, Avik & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2018. "Were Reinhart and Rogoff right?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 614-620.
    9. Markus Eberhardt & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They're Different: Heterogeneity;and Nonlinearity in the Relationship;between Debt and Growth," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 92, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    10. Branimir Jovanovic, 2017. "Growth forecast errors and government investment and consumption multipliers," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 83-107, January.
    11. Balẳ Égert, 2015. "The 90% public debt threshold: the rise and fall of a stylized fact," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3756-3770, July.
    12. Westerhout, Ed, 2022. "30 Years of Generational Accounting : A Critical Review," Discussion Paper 2022-021, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    13. Kazuo Nishimura & Carine Nourry & Thomas Seegmuller & Alain Venditti, 2015. "On the (de)stabilizing effect of public debt in a Ramsey model with heterogeneous agents," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 11(1), pages 7-24, March.
    14. Arnaud Cheron & Kazuo Nishimura & Carine Nourry & Thomas Seegmuller & Alain Venditti, 2019. "Growth and Public Debt: What Are the Relevant Trade‐Offs?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2-3), pages 655-682, March.
    15. Kelbesa Abdisa Megersa, 2015. "The laffer curve and the debt-growth link in low-income Sub-Saharan African economies," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(5), pages 878-892, October.
    16. Swamy, Vighneswara, 2015. "Government Debt and its Macroeconomic Determinants – An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 64106, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Vighneswara Swamy, 2015. "Government Debt and Economic Growth:Estimating the Debt Thresholds and Debt Intolerance," IEG Working Papers 361, Institute of Economic Growth.
    18. Westerhout, Ed, 2022. "30 Years of Generational Accounting : A Critical Review," Other publications TiSEM 252a02fe-7374-499e-97c5-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Guerini, Mattia & Moneta, Alessio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2020. "The Janus-Faced Nature Of Debt: Results From A Data-Driven Cointegrated Svar Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 24-54, January.
    20. Yanrui Wu, 2020. "Local Government Debt And Economic Growth In China," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 229-242, July.
    21. Carsten Colombier & Christian Breuer, 2020. "Debt and growth: historical evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2594-2609.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reinhart-Rogoff; logical positivism; methodology; causality; economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bus:jphile:v:10:y:2017:i:2:n:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Valentin Cojanu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aseeero.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.