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Now you see it, now you don't: emerging contrary results in economics

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  • Robert Goldfarb

Abstract

A number of empirical literatures in economics display the following pattern of results. First, evidence accumulates to support an empirical result. As time passes, however, contrary results emerge that challenge that initial result. This phenomenon raises important issues about (i) what part empirical findings play in how economists come to believe things; and (ii) how believable inferences are to be made from literatures displaying such contrary results. This paper documents this 'emerging contrary result' phenomenon, and investigates the factors causing it. It considerably expands the list of emerging contrary results contained in my 1995 JEM paper. Of more importance, this paper identifies alternative explanations for these instances, and explores whether particular explanations can be plausibly assigned to the 26 examples in this paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Goldfarb, 1997. "Now you see it, now you don't: emerging contrary results in economics," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 221-244.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jecmet:v:4:y:1997:i:2:p:221-244
    DOI: 10.1080/13501789700000016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kevin J. Lansing, 1995. "Is public capital productive? A review of the evidence," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Mar.
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    Cited by:

    1. Houcine Senoussi, 2021. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in Growth Model of Barro: An Application of Random Forest Method," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 13(1), pages 4-23, March.
    2. Mariusz Maziarz, 2019. "The unrealistic realist philosophy. The ontology of econometrics revisited," The Journal of Philosophical Economics, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, The Journal of Philosophical Economics, vol. 13(1), pages 39-64, November.
    3. Adam Fforde, 2005. "Persuasion: Reflections on economics, data, and the 'homogeneity assumption'," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 63-91.
    4. Mariusz MAZIARZ, 2017. "‘Growth in a Time of Debt’ as an example of the logical-positivist science," The Journal of Philosophical Economics, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, The Journal of Philosophical Economics, vol. 10(2), pages 47-64, May.

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