IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/jqsprt/v13y2017i2p37-48n3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The temporalized Massey’s method

Author

Listed:
  • Franceschet Massimo

    (Department of Mathematics, Computer Science and Physics, University of Udine, Via delle Scienze 206, Udine 33100, Italy)

  • Bozzo Enrico

    (Department of Mathematics, Computer Science and Physics, University of Udine, Via delle Scienze 206, Udine 33100, Italy)

  • Vidoni Paolo

    (Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Udine, Via Tomadini 30/a, Udine 33100, Italy)

Abstract

We propose and throughly investigate a temporalized version of the popular Massey’s technique for rating actors in sport competitions. The method can be described as a dynamic temporal process in which team ratings are updated at every match according to their performance during the match and the strength of the opponent team. Using the Italian soccer dataset, we empirically show that the method has a good foresight prediction accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Franceschet Massimo & Bozzo Enrico & Vidoni Paolo, 2017. "The temporalized Massey’s method," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 37-48, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:13:y:2017:i:2:p:37-48:n:3
    DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2016-0093
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2016-0093
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/jqas-2016-0093?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chartier Timothy P. & Kreutzer Erich & Langville Amy N & Pedings Kathryn E., 2011. "Sports Ranking with Nonuniform Weighting," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Harville D.A., 2003. "The Selection or Seeding of College Basketball or Football Teams for Postseason Competition," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 17-27, January.
    3. Manuela Cattelan & Cristiano Varin & David Firth, 2013. "Dynamic Bradley–Terry modelling of sports tournaments," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(1), pages 135-150, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stekler Herman O. & Klein Andrew, 2012. "Predicting the Outcomes of NCAA Basketball Championship Games," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, March.
    2. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:4:y:2007:i:34:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Grimshaw Scott D. & Sabin R. Paul & Willes Keith M., 2013. "Analysis of the NCAA Men’s Final Four TV audience," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 115-126, June.
    4. Barrow Daniel & Drayer Ian & Elliott Peter & Gaut Garren & Osting Braxton, 2013. "Ranking rankings: an empirical comparison of the predictive power of sports ranking methods," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 187-202, June.
    5. Cristiano Varin & Manuela Cattelan & David Firth, 2016. "Statistical modelling of citation exchange between statistics journals," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(1), pages 1-63, January.
    6. Alexandra Grand & Regina Dittrich & Brian Francis, 2015. "Markov models of dependence in longitudinal paired comparisons: an application to course design," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 99(2), pages 237-257, April.
    7. Wunderlich, Fabian & Memmert, Daniel, 2020. "Are betting returns a useful measure of accuracy in (sports) forecasting?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 713-722.
    8. Golnaz Shahtahmassebi & Rana Moyeed, 2016. "An application of the generalized Poisson difference distribution to the Bayesian modelling of football scores," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 70(3), pages 260-273, August.
    9. Lasek, Jan & Gagolewski, Marek, 2021. "Interpretable sports team rating models based on the gradient descent algorithm," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1061-1071.
    10. Manner Hans, 2016. "Modeling and forecasting the outcomes of NBA basketball games," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 31-41, March.
    11. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:12:y:2008:i:17:p:1-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Gerhard Tutz & Gunther Schauberger, 2015. "Extended ordered paired comparison models with application to football data from German Bundesliga," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 99(2), pages 209-227, April.
    13. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lit, Rutger, 2019. "Forecasting football match results in national league competitions using score-driven time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 797-809.
    14. Leman Scotland C. & House Leanna & Szarka John & Nelson Hayley, 2014. "Life on the bubble: Who’s in and who’s out of March Madness?," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 315-328, September.
    15. Fearnhead Paul & Taylor Benjamin Matthew, 2011. "On Estimating the Ability of NBA Players," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-18, July.
    16. Murray Thomas A., 2017. "Ranking ultimate teams using a Bayesian score-augmented win-loss model," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 63-78, June.
    17. Araki, Kenji & Hirose, Yoshihiro & Komaki, Fumiyasu, 2019. "Paired comparison models with age effects modeled as piecewise quadratic splines," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 733-740.
    18. Coleman Jay & Lynch Allen K, 2009. "NCAA Tournament Games: The Real Nitty-Gritty," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 1-27, July.
    19. Guironnet, Jean-Pascal, 2023. "Competitive intensity and industry performance of professional sports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    20. Marc Garnica-Caparrós & Daniel Memmert & Fabian Wunderlich, 2022. "Artificial data in sports forecasting: a simulation framework for analysing predictive models in sports," Information Systems and e-Business Management, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 551-580, September.
    21. Claus Thorn Ekstrøm & Andreas Kryger Jensen, 2023. "Having a ball: evaluating scoring streaks and game excitement using in-match trend estimation," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 107(1), pages 295-311, March.
    22. Lim, Alejandro & Chiang, Chin-Tsang & Teng, Jen-Chieh, 2021. "Estimating robot strengths with application to selection of alliance members in FIRST robotics competitions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:13:y:2017:i:2:p:37-48:n:3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.