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Ranking rankings: an empirical comparison of the predictive power of sports ranking methods

Author

Listed:
  • Barrow Daniel

    (Pitzer College, Department of Mathematics, 1050 North Mills Avenue, Claremont, CA 91711, USA)

  • Drayer Ian

    (UCLA, Department of Mathematics, 405 Hilgard Avenue, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA)

  • Elliott Peter

    (UCLA, Department of Mathematics, 405 Hilgard Avenue, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA)

  • Gaut Garren

    (UCLA, Department of Mathematics, 405 Hilgard Avenue, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA)

  • Osting Braxton

    (UCLA, Department of Mathematics, 405 Hilgard Avenue, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA)

Abstract

In this paper, we empirically evaluate the predictive power of eight sports ranking methods. For each ranking method, we implement two versions, one using only win-loss data and one utilizing score-differential data. The methods are compared on 4 datasets: 32 National Basketball Association (NBA) seasons, 112 Major League Baseball (MLB) seasons, 22 NCAA Division 1-A Basketball (NCAAB) seasons, and 56 NCAA Division 1-A Football (NCAAF) seasons. For each season of each dataset, we apply 20-fold cross validation to determine the predictive accuracy of the ranking methods. The non-parametric Friedman hypothesis test is used to assess whether the predictive errors for the considered rankings over the seasons are statistically dissimilar. The post-hoc Nemenyi test is then employed to determine which ranking methods have significant differences in predictive power. For all datasets, the null hypothesis – that all ranking methods are equivalent – is rejected at the 99% confidence level. For NCAAF and NCAAB datasets, the Nemenyi test concludes that the implementations utilizing score-differential data are usually more predictive than those using only win-loss data. For the NCAAF dataset, the least squares and random walker methods have significantly better predictive accuracy at the 95% confidence level than the other methods considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Barrow Daniel & Drayer Ian & Elliott Peter & Gaut Garren & Osting Braxton, 2013. "Ranking rankings: an empirical comparison of the predictive power of sports ranking methods," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 187-202, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:9:y:2013:i:2:p:187-202:n:7
    DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2013-0013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Trono John A., 2010. "Rating/Ranking Systems, Post-Season Bowl Games, and "The Spread"," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-20, July.
    2. Stefani Ray, 2011. "The Methodology of Officially Recognized International Sports Rating Systems," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-22, October.
    3. Chan Victor, 2011. "Prediction Accuracy of Linear Models for Paired Comparisons in Sports," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-35, July.
    4. Chartier Timothy P. & Kreutzer Erich & Langville Amy N & Pedings Kathryn E., 2011. "Sports Ranking with Nonuniform Weighting," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-16, July.
    5. Gill Ryan & Keating Jerome, 2009. "Assessing Methods for College Football Rankings," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-21, May.
    6. Burer Samuel, 2012. "Robust Rankings for College Football," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-22, June.
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