IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/jqsprt/v12y2016i4p179-188n2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Markov Decision Process-based handicap system for tennis

Author

Listed:
  • Chan Timothy C. Y.

    (University of Toronto, Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Toronto, Ontario, Canada)

  • Singal Raghav

    (Columbia University, Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, New York City, NY, USA)

Abstract

Handicap systems are used in many sports to improve competitive balance and equalize the match-win probability between opponents of differing ability. Recognizing the absence of such a system in tennis, we develop a novel optimization-based handicap system for tennis using a Markov Decision Process (MDP) model. In our handicap system, the weaker player is given β “free points” or “credits” at the start of the match, which he can use before the start of any point during the match to win the point outright. The MDP model determines two key features of the handicap system: (1) Fairness: the minimum value of β required to equalize the match-win probability, and (2) Achievability: the optimal policy governing usage of the β credits to achieve the desired match-win probability. We test the sensitivity of the handicap values to the model’s input parameters. Finally, we apply the model to real match data to estimate professional handicaps.

Suggested Citation

  • Chan Timothy C. Y. & Singal Raghav, 2016. "A Markov Decision Process-based handicap system for tennis," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 12(4), pages 179-188, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:12:y:2016:i:4:p:179-188:n:2
    DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2016-0057
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2016-0057
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/jqas-2016-0057?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klaassen F. J G M & Magnus J. R., 2001. "Are Points in Tennis Independent and Identically Distributed? Evidence From a Dynamic Binary Panel Data Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 500-509, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chan Timothy C.Y. & Singal Raghav, 2018. "A Bayesian regression approach to handicapping tennis players based on a rating system," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 131-141, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alex Krumer & Mosi Rosenboim & Offer Moshe Shapir, 2016. "Gender, Competitiveness, and Physical Characteristics," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(3), pages 234-259, April.
    2. Holmes, Benjamin & McHale, Ian G. & Żychaluk, Kamila, 2023. "A Markov chain model for forecasting results of mixed martial arts contests," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 623-640.
    3. Cohen-Zada, Danny & Krumer, Alex & Rosenboim, Mosi & Shapir, Offer Moshe, 2017. "Choking under pressure and gender: Evidence from professional tennis," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 176-190.
    4. Gil Aharoni & Oded H. Sarig, 2012. "Hot hands and equilibrium," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(18), pages 2309-2320, June.
    5. Christophe Ley & Yves Dominicy, 2017. "Mutual Point-winning Probabilities (MPW): a New Performance Measure for Table Tennis," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2017-23, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Klaassen, F.J.G.M. & Magnus, J.R., 2006. "Are Economic Agents Successful Optimizers? An Analysis Through Strategy in Tennis," Other publications TiSEM 73e12d86-8fe4-4a87-9181-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Thierry Lallemand & Robert Plasman & François Rycx, 2008. "Women and Competition in Elimination Tournaments," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 9(1), pages 3-19, February.
    8. Guy Elaad & Alex Krumer & Jeffrey Kantor, 2018. "Corruption and Sensitive Soccer Games: Cross-Country Evidence," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 364-394.
    9. Deutscher, Christian & Neuberg, Lena & Thiem, Stefan, 2023. "Who’s afraid of the GOATs? - Shadow effects of tennis superstars," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    10. Gimenez-Egido, José María & Ortega-Toro, Enrique & Palao, José M & Torres-Luque, Gema, 2020. "Effect of scaling equipment on U-10 players tennis serve during match-play: A nonlinear pedagogical approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    11. Romain Gauriot & Lionel Page & John Wooders, 2016. "Nash at Wimbledon: Evidence from Half a Million Serves," QuBE Working Papers 046, QUT Business School.
    12. Legge, Stefan & Schmid, Lukas, 2013. "Rankings, Random Successes, and Individual Performance," Economics Working Paper Series 1340, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    13. Picchio, Matteo & van Ours, Jan C., 2024. "The impact of high temperatures on performance in work-related activities," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    14. Tomi Ovaska & Albert J. Sumell, 2014. "Who Has The Advantage? An Economic Exploration of Winning in Men's Professional Tennis," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 59(1), pages 34-51, May.
    15. Gery Geenens & Thomas Cuddihy, 2018. "Non‐parametric evidence of second‐leg home advantage in European football," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 181(4), pages 1009-1031, October.
    16. Rossignac-Milon, Maya & Pillemer, Julianna & Bailey, Erica R. & Blaine Horton Jr., C. & Iyengar, Sheena S., 2024. "Just be real with me: Perceived partner authenticity promotes relationship initiation via shared reality," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    17. Axel Anderson & Jeremy Rosen & John Rust & Kin-Ping Wong, 2021. "Disequilibrium Play in Tennis," Working Papers gueconwpa~21-21-07, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    18. Krumer, Alex & Lechner, Michael, 2016. "First In First Win: Evidence on Unfairness of Round-Robin Tournaments in Mega-Events," Economics Working Paper Series 1611, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    19. Easton, Stephen & Uylangco, Katherine, 2010. "Forecasting outcomes in tennis matches using within-match betting markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 564-575, July.
    20. Maria De Paola & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2015. "Gender Differences In Reaction To Psychological Pressure: Evidence From Tennis Players," Working Papers 201506, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:12:y:2016:i:4:p:179-188:n:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.