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A Markov chain model for forecasting results of mixed martial arts contests

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  • Holmes, Benjamin
  • McHale, Ian G.
  • Żychaluk, Kamila

Abstract

In this paper, we present a new methodology for forecasting the results of mixed martial arts contests. Our approach utilises data scraped from freely available websites to estimate fighters’ skills in various key aspects of the sport. With these skill estimates, we simulate the contest as an actual fight using Markov chains, rather than predicting a binary outcome. We compare the model’s accuracy to that of the bookmakers using their historical odds and show that the model can be used as the basis of a successful betting strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Holmes, Benjamin & McHale, Ian G. & Żychaluk, Kamila, 2023. "A Markov chain model for forecasting results of mixed martial arts contests," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 623-640.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:39:y:2023:i:2:p:623-640
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.01.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. M. J. Maher, 1982. "Modelling association football scores," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 36(3), pages 109-118, September.
    5. Klaassen F. J G M & Magnus J. R., 2001. "Are Points in Tennis Independent and Identically Distributed? Evidence From a Dynamic Binary Panel Data Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 500-509, June.
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