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Consistency, accuracy, and fairness: a study of discretionary penalties in the NFL

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  • Snyder Kevin

    (Southern New Hampshire University – Sport Management, 2500 North River Road, Manchester, NH 03106, USA)

  • Lopez Michael

    (Skidmore College, Saratoga Springs, NY, USA)

Abstract

Prior studies of referee behavior focus on identifying a bias in when certain calls are made [Kovash, Kenneth, & Levitt, Steven (2009). “Professionals do not play minimax: evidence from Major League Baseball and the National Football League (No. w15347).” National Bureau of Economic Research; Rosen, Peter A. and Rick L. Wilson. 2007. “An Analysis of the Defense First Strategy in College Football Overtime Games.” Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 3(2):1–17; Alamar, Benjamin. 2010. “Measuring Risk in NFL Playcalling.” Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 6:11.]. We extend this research by evaluating the consistency of specific discretionary penalties in professional football. In doing so, all NFL plays from 2002 to 2012 are considered, isolating the occurrence of holding and pass interference calls. Even after accounting for game and play specific variables, including team characteristics, type of play, and the game’s score, we find the likelihood of both penalty types follows a quadratic trend, low at the beginning and ends of the game, but high in the middle. We suggest that these penalties are uniquely called with higher levels of discretion, in an attempt by referees to imply fairness in the flow of the game.

Suggested Citation

  • Snyder Kevin & Lopez Michael, 2015. "Consistency, accuracy, and fairness: a study of discretionary penalties in the NFL," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 11(4), pages 219-230, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:11:y:2015:i:4:p:219-230:n:4
    DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2015-0039
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kenneth Kovash & Steven D. Levitt, 2009. "Professionals Do Not Play Minimax: Evidence from Major League Baseball and the National Football League," NBER Working Papers 15347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Pettersson-Lidbom, Per & Priks, Mikael, 2010. "Behavior under social pressure: Empty Italian stadiums and referee bias," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 212-214, August.
    3. Carl Kitchens, 2014. "Identifying Changes In The Spatial Distribution Of Crime: Evidence From A Referee Experiment In The National Football League," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(1), pages 259-268, January.
    4. Rosen Peter A & Wilson Rick L., 2007. "An Analysis of the Defense First Strategy in College Football Overtime Games," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-19, April.
    5. Abrevaya Jason & McCulloch Robert, 2014. "Reversal of fortune: a statistical analysis of penalty calls in the National Hockey League," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 207-224, June.
    6. Alamar Benjamin C, 2010. "Measuring Risk in NFL Playcalling," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-9, April.
    7. Babatunde Buraimo & David Forrest & Robert Simmons, 2010. "The 12th man?: refereeing bias in English and German soccer," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(2), pages 431-449, April.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ge Qi, 2019. "Risk Taking and Aggression On and Off the Field: Evidence from the National Football League," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 1-9, July.
    3. Yurko Ronald & Ventura Samuel & Horowitz Maksim, 2019. "nflWAR: a reproducible method for offensive player evaluation in football," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 163-183, September.
    4. Alex Farnell, 2023. "False Start? An Analysis of NFL Penalties With and Without Crowds," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(6), pages 695-716, August.

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