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Reversal of fortune: a statistical analysis of penalty calls in the National Hockey League

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Listed:
  • Abrevaya Jason

    (Department of Economics, The University of Texas at Austin, USA)

  • McCulloch Robert

    (Professor of Econometrics and Statistics, University of Chicago – Booth School of Business, 5807 S Woodlawn Ave., Chicago, IL 60637, USA)

Abstract

This paper analyzes a unique data set consisting of all penalty calls in the National Hockey League between the 1995–1996 and 2001–2002 seasons. The primary finding is the prevalence of “reverse calls:” if previous penalties have been on one team, then the next penalty is more likely to be on the other. This pattern is consistent with a simple behavioral rationale based on the fundamental difficulty of refereeing a National Hockey League game. Statistical modeling reveals that the identity of the next team to be penalized also depends on a variety of other factors, including the score, the time in the game, the time since last penalty, which team is at home, and whether one or two referees are calling the game. There is also evidence of differences among referees in their tendency to reverse calls.

Suggested Citation

  • Abrevaya Jason & McCulloch Robert, 2014. "Reversal of fortune: a statistical analysis of penalty calls in the National Hockey League," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 207-224, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:10:y:2014:i:2:p:18:n:3
    DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2013-0067
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    3. Jac C. Heckelman & Andrew J. Yates, 2003. "And a Hockey Game Broke Out: Crime and Punishment in the NHL," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(4), pages 705-712, October.
    4. Beaudoin, David & Swartz, Tim B., 2010. "Strategies for Pulling the Goalie in Hockey," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 64(3), pages 197-204.
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    Cited by:

    1. Buttrey Samuel E., 2016. "Beating the market betting on NHL hockey games," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 87-98, June.
    2. Snyder Kevin & Lopez Michael, 2015. "Consistency, accuracy, and fairness: a study of discretionary penalties in the NFL," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 11(4), pages 219-230, December.
    3. Gregory DeAngelo & Adam Nowak & Imke Reimers, 2018. "Examining Regulatory Capture: Evidence From The Nhl," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(1), pages 183-191, January.
    4. Michael J. Lopez, 2016. "Persuaded Under Pressure: Evidence From The National Football League," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(4), pages 1763-1773, October.

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