IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/jqsprt/v12y2016i2p87-98n1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Beating the market betting on NHL hockey games

Author

Listed:
  • Buttrey Samuel E.

    (Naval Postgraduate School – Operations Research, Code OR/Sb Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93943, USA)

Abstract

This article describes a method for predicting the outcome of National Hockey League (NHL) games. We combine a model for goal scoring and yielding, and one for penalty commission, in a Markov-type computation and a simulation model that produce predicted probabilities of victory for each team. Where these differ substantially from the market probabilities, we make “bets” according to a simple strategy. Our return on investment is both positive and statistically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Buttrey Samuel E., 2016. "Beating the market betting on NHL hockey games," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 87-98, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:12:y:2016:i:2:p:87-98:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2015-0003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2015-0003
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/jqas-2015-0003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abrevaya Jason & McCulloch Robert, 2014. "Reversal of fortune: a statistical analysis of penalty calls in the National Hockey League," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 207-224, June.
    2. Beaudoin, David & Swartz, Tim B., 2010. "Strategies for Pulling the Goalie in Hockey," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 64(3), pages 197-204.
    3. Linda M. Woodland & Bill M. Woodland, 2001. "Market Efficiency and Profitable Wagering in the National Hockey League: Can Bettors Score on Longshots?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(4), pages 983-995, April.
    4. Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach, 2012. "Sportsbook pricing and the behavioral biases of bettors in the NHL," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(1), pages 123-135, January.
    5. Thomas Andrew C, 2007. "Inter-arrival Times of Goals in Ice Hockey," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 1-17, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jason P. Berkowitz & Craig A. Depken II & John M. Gandar, 2018. "The Conversion of Money Lines Into Win Probabilities," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(7), pages 990-1015, October.
    2. Jinook Jeong & Jee Young Kim & Yoon Jae Ro, 2019. "On the efficiency of racetrack betting market: a new test for the favourite-longshot bias," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(54), pages 5817-5828, November.
    3. William H. Dare & Steven A. Dennis, 2011. "A Test for Bias of Inherent Characteristics in Betting Markets," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(6), pages 660-665, December.
    4. Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach, 2012. "Sportsbook pricing and the behavioral biases of bettors in the NHL," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(1), pages 123-135, January.
    5. Gabel Alan & Redner Sidney, 2012. "Random Walk Picture of Basketball Scoring," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, March.
    6. Raphael Flepp & Stephan Nüesch & Egon Franck, 2016. "Does Bettor Sentiment Affect Bookmaker Pricing?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(1), pages 3-11, January.
    7. Philip W. S. Newall & Dominic Cortis, 2021. "Are Sports Bettors Biased toward Longshots, Favorites, or Both? A Literature Review," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, January.
    8. Michal Friesl & Liam J. A. Lenten & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlík, 2017. "In search of goals: increasing ice hockey’s attractiveness by a sides swap," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 68(9), pages 1006-1018, September.
    9. Dominic Cortis, 2015. "Expected Values And Variances In Bookmaker Payouts: A Theoretical Approach Towards Setting Limits On Odds," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 9(1), pages 1-14.
    10. Jaiho Chung & Joon Ho Hwang, 2010. "An Empirical Examination of the Parimutuel Sports Lottery Market versus the Bookmaker Market," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(4), pages 884-905, April.
    11. Leonardo Lamas & José Vitor Senatore & Gilbert Fellingham, 2020. "Two steps for scoring a point: Creating and converting opportunities in invasion team sports," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(10), pages 1-16, October.
    12. Timothy C. Y. Chan & Justin A. Cho & David C. Novati, 2012. "Quantifying the Contribution of NHL Player Types to Team Performance," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 42(2), pages 131-145, April.
    13. Ladd Kochman & Randy Goodwin, 2004. "Underdogs are Man’s Best Friend," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 5(4), pages 387-391, November.
    14. Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2005. "Bettor Misperceptions in the NBA," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 6(4), pages 390-400, November.
    15. Lahvicka, Jiri, 2013. "Impact of playoffs on seasonal uncertainty in Czech ice hockey Extraliga," MPRA Paper 44608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Marshall Gramm & C. Nicholas McKinney & Douglas H. Owens & Matt E. Ryan, 2007. "What Do Bettors Want? Determinants of Pari‐Mutuel Betting Preference," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 465-491, July.
    17. Adi Schnytzer & Guy Weinberg, 2008. "Testing for Home Team and Favorite Biases in the Australian Rules Football Fixed-Odds and Point Spread Betting Markets," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 9(2), pages 173-190, April.
    18. David Forrest & Robert Simmons, 2008. "Sentiment in the betting market on Spanish football," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 119-126.
    19. Angelini, Giovanni & De Angelis, Luca, 2019. "Efficiency of online football betting markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 712-721.
    20. David Forrest & Ian Mchale, 2007. "Anyone for Tennis (Betting)?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 751-768.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:12:y:2016:i:2:p:87-98:n:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.