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Beating the market betting on NHL hockey games

Author

Listed:
  • Buttrey Samuel E.

    (Naval Postgraduate School – Operations Research, Code OR/Sb Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93943, USA)

Abstract

This article describes a method for predicting the outcome of National Hockey League (NHL) games. We combine a model for goal scoring and yielding, and one for penalty commission, in a Markov-type computation and a simulation model that produce predicted probabilities of victory for each team. Where these differ substantially from the market probabilities, we make “bets” according to a simple strategy. Our return on investment is both positive and statistically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Buttrey Samuel E., 2016. "Beating the market betting on NHL hockey games," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 87-98, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:12:y:2016:i:2:p:87-98:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2015-0003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Linda M. Woodland & Bill M. Woodland, 2001. "Market Efficiency and Profitable Wagering in the National Hockey League: Can Bettors Score on Longshots?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(4), pages 983-995, April.
    2. Thomas Andrew C, 2007. "Inter-arrival Times of Goals in Ice Hockey," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 1-17, July.
    3. Abrevaya Jason & McCulloch Robert, 2014. "Reversal of fortune: a statistical analysis of penalty calls in the National Hockey League," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 207-224, June.
    4. Beaudoin, David & Swartz, Tim B., 2010. "Strategies for Pulling the Goalie in Hockey," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 64(3), pages 197-204.
    5. Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach, 2012. "Sportsbook pricing and the behavioral biases of bettors in the NHL," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(1), pages 123-135, January.
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