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Measuring the Competitive Threat from China for other Southern Exporters

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  • Rhys Jenkins

Abstract

In recent years there has been a growing literature which analyses the threat which Chinese exports pose to the exports of other developing countries. This paper provides a critique of the standard measures of export similarity which have been used to estimate the threat from China in these studies. Two alternative indices, the Static and the Dynamic Index of Competitive Threat, are developed and estimated for 18 developing countries and compared with estimates for the standard measures. It is shown that the latter tend to underestimate the extent to which countries are threatened by China. They also distort both the rankings of countries according to the extent to which they face competition from China and the direction of change in the competitive threat over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Rhys Jenkins, 2008. "Measuring the Competitive Threat from China for other Southern Exporters," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(10), pages 1351-1366, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:31:y:2008:i:10:p:1351-1366
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2008.01132.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mesquita Moreira, Mauricio, 2007. "Fear of China: Is There a Future for Manufacturing in Latin America?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 355-376, March.
    2. Peter K. Schott, 2006. "The relative revealed competitiveness of China's exports to the United States vis a vis other countries in Asia, the Caribbean, Latin America and the OECD," INTAL Working Papers 1285, Inter-American Development Bank, INTAL.
    3. Blázquez, Jorge & Rodríguez, Javier & Santiso, Javier, 2006. "Angel or demon?: China's trade impact on Latin American countries," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
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    5. Mesquita Moreira, Mauricio, 2007. "Fear of China: Is There a Future for Manufacturing in Latin America?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 355-376, March.
    6. Jenkins, Rhys & Edwards, Chris, 2006. "The economic impacts of China and India on sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and prospects," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 207-225, April.
    7. Rhys Jenkins, 2008. "Measuring the Competitive Threat from China," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-11, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Harry G. Broadman, 2007. "Africa's Silk Road : China and India's New Economic Frontier," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7186.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Larry D. Qiu & Chaoqun Zhan, 2016. "Special Section: China's Growing Trade and its Role to the World Economy," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 45-71, February.
    3. Dic Lo, 2016. "Developing or Under-developing? Implications of China’s ‘Going out’ for Late Development," Working Papers 198, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    4. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2014. "Trade Balance, Foreign Exchange and Macroeconomic Impacts: An Empirical Assessment for China and Malaysia," MPRA Paper 59539, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Aug 2014.
    5. Dic Lo, 2010. "China and World Development beyond the Crisis," Working Papers 167, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    6. Kyoko Hirose & Yushi Yoshida, 2012. "Intra-National Regional Heterogeneity in International Trade: Foreign Growth on Exports and Production of Domestic Regions," Discussion Papers 54, Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics.
    7. Rhys Jenkins, 2008. "China's Global Growth and Latin American Exports," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-104, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Martijn J. Burger & Bert van der Knaap & Ronald S. Wall, 2013. "Revealed competition for greenfield investments between European regions," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(4), pages 619-648, July.
    9. Débora Bellucci Módolo & Celio Hiratuka, 2017. "The impact of Chinese competition on third markets: An analysis by region and technological category," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 35(6), pages 797-821, November.
    10. Sandrina Moreira & Nadia Simoes & Nuno Crespo, 2017. "A contribution to a multidimensional analysis of trade competition," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(10), pages 2301-2326, October.
    11. Edwards, Lawrence & Jenkins, Rhys, 2014. "The margins of export competition: A new approach to evaluating the impact of China on South African exports to Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(S1), pages 132-150.
    12. Dumitrescu Iulia Monica & Crespo Nuno & Simões Nadia, 2018. "Trade Competition Measurement and the Choice of Measurement Indexes," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 63(3), pages 3-14, December.
    13. Nuno Crespo & Nádia Simões & José Duarte, 2013. "Competition in tourism arrivals – A multidimensional index of geographical structural similarity," Working Papers Series 2 13-05, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
    14. Lopes, Vania & Simoes, Nadia & Crespo, Nuno, 2014. "A methodological contribution for measuring trade competition," MPRA Paper 58042, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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