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The margins of export competition: A new approach to evaluating the impact of China on South African exports to Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Edwards, Lawrence
  • Jenkins, Rhys

Abstract

Chinese manufacturing exports to Sub-Saharan Africa challenge South Africa's economic influence in the region. To evaluate this, the paper develops and applies a conceptual framework that distinguishes between the intensive and extensive margins of Chinese export competition. South African exports of new and existing manufactured products to Sub-Saharan Africa are found to have been negatively affected by Chinese competition relative to exports from other countries. Consequently, South Africa's exports to the region in 2010 were 20% lower than they would have been if they had been affected to the same degree as other countries. The crowding-out effects are found to be strongest in medium- and low-technology products. Overall, the data suggest that Chinese exports of manufactures have diminished South Africa's participation and economic influence in the region.

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  • Edwards, Lawrence & Jenkins, Rhys, 2014. "The margins of export competition: A new approach to evaluating the impact of China on South African exports to Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(S1), pages 132-150.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:36:y:2014:i:s1:p:s132-s150
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2013.10.003
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    Cited by:

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    2. Christian Darko & Giovanni Occhiali & Enrico Vanino, 2021. "The Chinese are Here: Import Penetration and Firm Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(12), pages 2112-2135, December.
    3. Larry D. Qiu & Chaoqun Zhan, 2016. "Special Section: China's Growing Trade and its Role to the World Economy," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 45-71, February.
    4. Kafilah Lola GOLD & Rajah RASIAH & Kian Teng KWEK & Murtala MUHAMMAD, 2020. "Export Determinants of China’s FDI in Africa: Empirical Evidence from Oil/Minerals Exporting African Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 119-133, September.
    5. Cunha, André Moreira & Lélis, Marcos Tadeu Caputi & Haines, Andrés Ernesto Ferrari & Franke, Luciane, 2023. "Exports of manufactured goods and structural change: Brazil in the face of Chinese competition," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-12.
    6. Christian Elleby & Wusheng Yu & Qian Yu, 2018. "The Chinese Export Displacement Effect Revisited," IFRO Working Paper 2018/02, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    7. Richmond Atta-Ankomah, 2015. "Chinese Technologies and pro-poor industrialisation in Sub Saharan Africa: The case of furniture manufacturing in Kenya," Globelics Working Paper Series 2015-15, Globelics - Global Network for Economics of Learning, Innovation, and Competence Building Systems, Aalborg University, Department of Business and Management.
    8. Débora Bellucci Módolo & Celio Hiratuka, 2017. "The impact of Chinese competition on third markets: An analysis by region and technological category," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 35(6), pages 797-821, November.
    9. Darko, Christian K. & Occhiali, Giovanni & Vanino, Enrico, 2018. "The Chinese are Here: Firm Level Analysis of Import Competition and Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," ETA: Economic Theory and Applications 273142, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    10. Sofia Torreggiani & Antonio Andreoni, 2019. "Dancing with dragons: Chinese import penetration and the performances of manufacturing firms in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-63, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Welslau, Lennard & Artecona, Raquel & Perrotti, Daniel E., 2022. "China and Latin America and the Caribbean: Exports competition in the United States market," Studies and Perspectives – ECLAC Office in Washington 48356, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    12. Roberto Veneziani & Luca Zamparelli & Omar S. Dahi & Firat Demir, 2017. "South–South And North–South Economic Exchanges: Does It Matter Who Is Exchanging What And With Whom?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1449-1486, December.
    13. Lennard Welslau & Raquel Artecona & Daniel E. Perrotti, 2024. "Export competition between China and Latin America and the Caribbean in the United States market," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(7), pages 2947-2969, July.
    14. Kafilah Lola Gold, 2022. "The determinant of Chinese foreign direct investments in oil exporting African countries," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(3), pages 476-490, July.
    15. Torreggiani, Sofia & Andreoni, Antonio, 2023. "Rising to the challenge or perish? Chinese import penetration and its impact on growth dynamics of manufacturing firms in South Africa," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 199-212.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    South Africa; China; Sub-Saharan Africa; Export competition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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