IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/sysdyn/v39y2023i4p371-403.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Feedback dynamics of the low‐income rental housing market: exploring policy responses to COVID‐19

Author

Listed:
  • Katherine E. Marçal
  • Patrick J. Fowler
  • Peter S. Hovmand

Abstract

The economic impact of COVID‐19 threatened mass housing insecurity undermining the health and financial recovery from the pandemic. Unprecedented federal policy responses halted court‐ordered evictions and injected billions of dollars in rental assistance, but questions remain whether housing interventions adequately accounted for dynamics that drive landlord‐tenant interactions, including accumulations of rental and mortgage arrears, rental unit availability, and low‐income housing options. A system dynamics model probes complex feedback dynamics driving tenant and landlord decision‐making in the low‐income rental housing market pre‐ and postpandemic protections. Feedback loops highlight trade‐offs considered by low‐income tenants and landlords in the context of scarcity and uncertainty. Simulations suggest the eviction moratorium and federal emergency rental assistance prevented a tidal wave of evictions, but rental arrears, overcrowding, and homelessness remain elevated. Failure to address underlying financial hardship and limited affordable housing undermines COVID recovery. © 2023 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Katherine E. Marçal & Patrick J. Fowler & Peter S. Hovmand, 2023. "Feedback dynamics of the low‐income rental housing market: exploring policy responses to COVID‐19," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 39(4), pages 371-403, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:sysdyn:v:39:y:2023:i:4:p:371-403
    DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1746
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1746
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/sdr.1746?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kimberly Skobba & Edward G. Goetz, 2015. "Doubling up and the erosion of social capital among very low income households," European Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 127-147, April.
    2. Eduard Romanenko & Jack Homer & Nanna Lien, 2023. "As simple as possible but not simpler: structural sensitivity testing of a dynamic model of adolescent overweight and obesity," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 39(2), pages 125-139, April.
    3. Kimberly Skobba & Edward G. Goetz, 2015. "Doubling up and the erosion of social capital among very low income households," International Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 127-147, April.
    4. Saleh, Mohamed & Oliva, Rogelio & Kampmann, Christian Erik & Davidsen, Pål I., 2010. "A comprehensive analytical approach for policy analysis of system dynamics models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 203(3), pages 673-683, June.
    5. Anderson, Will & White, Vicki & Finney, Andrea, 2012. "Coping with low incomes and cold homes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 40-52.
    6. Oliva, Rogelio, 2003. "Model calibration as a testing strategy for system dynamics models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 151(3), pages 552-568, December.
    7. Anne K. Rufa & Patrick J. Fowler, 2018. "Housing Decisions Among Homeless Families Involved in the Child Welfare System," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 285-298, March.
    8. Giselle Routhier, 2019. "Beyond Worst Case Needs: Measuring the Breadth and Severity of Housing Insecurity Among Urban Renters," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 235-249, March.
    9. Marah Curtis & Hope Corman & Kelly Noonan & Nancy Reichman, 2013. "Life Shocks and Homelessness," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(6), pages 2227-2253, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arcaya, Mariana C. & Nidam, Yael & Binet, Andrew & Gibson, Reann & Gavin, Vedette, 2020. "Rising home values and Covid-19 case rates in Massachusetts," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    2. Navid Ghaffarzadegan & Richard C. Larson, 2018. "SD meets OR: a new synergy to address policy problems," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 34(1-2), pages 327-353, January.
    3. Gregg Colburn & Ryan Allen, 2018. "Rent burden and the Great Recession in the USA," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 55(1), pages 226-243, January.
    4. Natasha Pilkauskas & Katherine Michelmore, 2019. "The Effect of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Housing and Living Arrangements," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(4), pages 1303-1326, August.
    5. Kenneth Chatindiara & Lochner Marais & Jan Cloete, 2022. "Housing and Child Health in South Africa: The Value of Longitudinal Research," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(5), pages 1-12, February.
    6. Rogelio Oliva, 2020. "On structural dominance analysis," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 36(1), pages 8-28, January.
    7. Schwartz, Gabriel L. & Leifheit, Kathryn M. & Arcaya, Mariana C. & Keene, Danya, 2024. "Eviction as a community health exposure," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    8. O'Donnell, James & Kingsley, Meg, 2020. "The relationship between housing and children’s socio-emotional and behavioral development in Australia," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    9. Colleen Wynn & Lauren McClain, 2015. "Not Quite Out On The Streets: Housing Tenure Among Low-Income Urban Fathers," Working Papers wp13-17-ff, Princeton University, School of Public and International Affairs, Center for Research on Child Wellbeing..
    10. Colleen Heflin & Hannah Patnaik, 2023. "Material Hardship and the Living Arrangements of Older Americans," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 267-284, June.
    11. Kelly D. Edmiston, 2016. "Residential Rent Affordability across U.S. Metropolitan Areas," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 5-27.
    12. Rogelio Oliva, 2016. "Structural dominance analysis of large and stochastic models," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 32(1), pages 26-51, January.
    13. Jair Andrade & Jim Duggan, 2021. "A Bayesian approach to calibrate system dynamics models using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 37(4), pages 283-309, October.
    14. Brown, Christopher J. & Markusson, Nils, 2019. "The responses of older adults to smart energy monitors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 218-226.
    15. Yu, Shiwei & Wei, Yi-ming, 2012. "Prediction of China's coal production-environmental pollution based on a hybrid genetic algorithm-system dynamics model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 521-529.
    16. Scheffler, Bernie, 2020. ""It's Real": Experiences of Family Homelessness in Fort Worth, Texas," Thesis Commons u2n6p, Center for Open Science.
    17. Burlinson, Andrew & Giulietti, Monica & Law, Cherry & Liu, Hui-Hsuan, 2021. "Fuel poverty and financial distress," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    18. Lee, Christopher Thomas & Guzman, David & Ponath, Claudia & Tieu, Lina & Riley, Elise & Kushel, Margot, 2016. "Residential patterns in older homeless adults: Results of a cluster analysis," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 131-140.
    19. Francesco Tonini & Francesco Davide Sanvito & Fabrizio Colombelli & Emanuela Colombo, 2022. "Improving Sustainable Access to Electricity in Rural Tanzania: A System Dynamics Approach to the Matembwe Village," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-17, March.
    20. Bob Walrave, 2016. "Determining intervention thresholds that change output behavior patterns," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 32(3-4), pages 261-278, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:sysdyn:v:39:y:2023:i:4:p:371-403. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/0883-7066 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.