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As simple as possible but not simpler: structural sensitivity testing of a dynamic model of adolescent overweight and obesity

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  • Eduard Romanenko
  • Jack Homer
  • Nanna Lien

Abstract

We recently published results from an SD model of adolescent overweight and obesity using data from 31 European countries that participate in the Health Behavior in School‐Aged Children (HBSC) study. During model development, we sought to identify a feedback structure with high explanatory power that avoided speculative relationships. Expert reviewers generally agreed with our modeling decisions, but two decisions did raise questions: (1) excluding the influences of food environment and built environment, for which HBSC provided no data; and (2) including five causal links that were supported statistically but might be considered disputable. To address the reviewers' questions, we created four possible model structures and performed automated calibration followed by intervention testing and ranking. We then compared the goodness‐of‐fit and intervention results. We discuss implications for how to move forward with the model, including through additional data gathering. © 2023 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduard Romanenko & Jack Homer & Nanna Lien, 2023. "As simple as possible but not simpler: structural sensitivity testing of a dynamic model of adolescent overweight and obesity," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 39(2), pages 125-139, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:sysdyn:v:39:y:2023:i:2:p:125-139
    DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1732
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jack Homer, 2014. "Levels of evidence in system dynamics modeling," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 30(1-2), pages 75-80, January.
    2. Jeroen Struben & Derek Chan & Laurette Dubé, 2014. "Policy Insights from the Nutritional Food Market Transformation Model : The Case of Obesity Prevention Dynamics," Post-Print hal-02312275, HAL.
    3. John Sterman, 2018. "System dynamics at sixty: the path forward," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 34(1-2), pages 5-47, January.
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