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An asymmetric error correction model of UK consumer spending

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  • Alan Carruth
  • Andrew Dickerson

Abstract

This paper augments the Granger and Lee (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 4, 1989) non-symmetric error (equilibrium) correction model to assess the possibility that, in the aggregate, consumers respond differently to different types of disequilibrium error. This idea is illustrated using an Engle-Granger implementation of the Davidson, Hendry, Srba and Yeo (DHSY, Economic Journal, 80, 1978) model. The disequilibrium error is endogenously determined by the long-run, empirical model and a binary dummy variable captures two alternative states, above and below equilibrium spending. Interaction of the dummy variable with key variables in a short-run dynamic model of UK consumer spending augments the dynamics of the DHSY model. Income elasticities, inflation elasticities and speeds of adjustment are all seen to change significantly depending on whether the disequilibrium error is positive or negative, and is suggestive of asymmetric behaviour on the part of consumers. Moreover, the asymmetrically augmented model substantially outperforms a symmetric model with standard error improvements in excess of 50%.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan Carruth & Andrew Dickerson, 2003. "An asymmetric error correction model of UK consumer spending," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 619-630.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:6:p:619-630
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684022000035782
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    Cited by:

    1. Dietrich, Hans & Gerner, Hans-Dieter, 2007. "The determinants of apprenticeship training with particular reference to business expectations," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 40(2/3), pages 221-233.
    2. Lo, Kuang-Ta & Chou, Ta-Sheng & Tsui, Stephanie, 2020. "The asymmetric behavior of household consumption under the business cycle," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. F. J. H. Don & J. P. Verbruggen, 2006. "Models and methods for economic policy: 60 years of evolution at CPB," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 60(2), pages 145-170, May.
    4. Dietrich, Hans & Gerner, Hans-Dieter, 2007. "The determinants of apprenticeship training with particular reference to business expectations," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 40(2/3), pages 221-233.
    5. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2005. "Resurrecting the Wealth Effect on Consumption: Further Analysis and Extension," Working papers 2005-57, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    6. Ulrich Gunter & Egon Smeral, 2016. "The decline of tourism income elasticities in a global context," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(3), pages 466-483, June.
    7. Kurt Kratena & Ina Meyer & Michael Wüger, 2009. "Ökonomische, technologische und soziodemographische Einflussfaktoren der Energienachfrage," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 82(7), pages 525-538, July.
    8. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2004. "Consumption Asymmetry and the Stock Market: Further Evidence," Working papers 2004-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    9. Dietrich, Hans & Gerner, Hans-Dieter, 2007. "The determinants of apprenticeship training with particular reference to business expectations," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 40(2/3), pages 221-233.
    10. Márquez, Elena & Martínez-Cañete, Ana R. & Pérez-Soba, Inés, 2013. "Wealth shocks, credit conditions and asymmetric consumption response: Empirical evidence for the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 357-366.
    11. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2005. "Consumption asymmetry and the stock market: New evidence through a threshold adjustment model," Working papers 2005-08, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    12. James T. Strong & Gokce Soydemir & Panagiotis Petratos, 2019. "Asymmetric Impact of Advertising revenues on Consumer Behavior: A Bivariate Approach," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(2), pages 1-14.
    13. Till van Treeck, 2008. "Asymmetric income and wealth effects in a non-linear error correction model of US consumer spending," IMK Working Paper 06-2008, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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