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Latinos por Trump? Latinos and the 2016 Presidential Election

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  • Álvaro J. Corral
  • David L. Leal

Abstract

Objective This article examines the unresolved puzzle of the Latino vote in the 2016 presidential election. The National Election Pool (NEP) estimated that Trump received 28 percent, which surprised many given Trump's rhetoric, but it was just one of several estimates (ranging from 18 to over 30 percent). Methods We analyze the 2016 and 2012 American National Election Study, Pew's 2016 and 2012 National Survey of Latinos, the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, and various media polls. Results The data indicate that (1) Trump improved on Romney among key groups of Latinos (Protestants, low income, and the third generation) but lost ground among others; (2) Clinton underperformed Obama across multiple dimensions; and (3) many Latino undecided voters and third‐party supporters broke late for Trump. Conclusion Trump did better than expected among Latinos. This highlights an increasingly diverse Latino electorate and complicates our understanding of the political implications of demographic change.

Suggested Citation

  • Álvaro J. Corral & David L. Leal, 2020. "Latinos por Trump? Latinos and the 2016 Presidential Election," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 101(3), pages 1115-1131, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:101:y:2020:i:3:p:1115-1131
    DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.12787
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wendy K. Tam Cho & Brian J. Gaines, 2004. "The Limits of Ecological Inference: The Case of Split‐Ticket Voting," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(1), pages 152-171, January.
    2. Luana Russo, 2014. "Estimating floating voters: a comparison between the ecological inference and the survey methods," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1667-1683, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jennifer Lopez & R. Michael Alvarez & Seo‐young Silvia Kim, 2022. "Latinos, group identity, and equal opportunity on the 2020 California ballot," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 103(7), pages 1572-1586, December.
    2. Kaeser, Aflatun & Tani, Massimiliano, 2023. "Do immigrants ever oppose immigration?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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