IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/somere/v36y2007i1p3-25.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

EI Extended Model and the Fear of Ecological Fallacy

Author

Listed:
  • Baodong Liu

    (University of Wisconsin, Oshkosh)

Abstract

Most existing models of ecological inference are based on the assumption that there is no aggregation bias. Few studies have focused on how to correct/ model aggregation bias. This article takes advantage of a unique opportunity to compare the controversial ecological inference methods by using aggregate as well as individual-level data from an actual election. Furthermore, the true quantities of interest are also available, which guarantees the accuracy of the empirical tests. Our mean squared error analyses show that King's Ecological Inference (EI) basic model does not always outperform the traditional ecological regression and neighborhood methods when aggregation bias does exist. However, using an appropriate covariate in the King's EI extended model to correct the aggregation bias problem can drastically improve the estimation accuracy at both the precinct and district levels. This article also makes suggestions on how to use a covariate in a King's extended model.

Suggested Citation

  • Baodong Liu, 2007. "EI Extended Model and the Fear of Ecological Fallacy," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 36(1), pages 3-25, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:somere:v:36:y:2007:i:1:p:3-25
    DOI: 10.1177/0049124106295797
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0049124106295797
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0049124106295797?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johnston, Ron & Pattie, Charles, 2000. "Ecological Inference and Entropy-Maximizing: An Alternative Estimation Procedure for Split-Ticket Voting," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(4), pages 333-345, July.
    2. Gay, Claudine, 2001. "The Effect of Black Congressional Representation on Political Participation," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 95(3), pages 589-602, September.
    3. Jeffrey S. Zax, 2002. "Comment on “Estimating the Extent of Racially Polarized Voting in Multicandidate Contests†by Bernard Grofman and Michael Migalski," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 31(1), pages 75-86, August.
    4. Burden, Barry C. & Kimball, David C., 1998. "A New Approach to the Study of Ticket Splitting," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 92(3), pages 533-544, September.
    5. Anselin, Luc & Tam Cho, Wendy K., 2002. "Spatial Effects and Ecological Inference," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 276-297, July.
    6. Adolph, Christopher & King, Gary & Herron, Michael C. & Shotts, Kenneth W., 2003. "A Consensus on Second-Stage Analyses in Ecological Inference Models," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 86-94, January.
    7. Richmond, J, 1976. "Aggregation and Identification," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 17(1), pages 47-56, February.
    8. Baodong Liu, 2001. "The Positive Effect of Black Density on White Crossover Voting: Reconsidering Social Interaction Theory," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 82(3), pages 602-615, September.
    9. Michael Tomz & Robert P. Van Houweling, 2003. "How Does Voting Equipment Affect the Racial Gap in Voided Ballots?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(1), pages 46-60, January.
    10. Wendy K. Tam Cho & Brian J. Gaines, 2004. "The Limits of Ecological Inference: The Case of Split‐Ticket Voting," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(1), pages 152-171, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carolina Plescia & Lorenzo De Sio, 2018. "An evaluation of the performance and suitability of R × C methods for ecological inference with known true values," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 669-683, March.
    2. Lorien Rice & Mark Henderson & Margaret Hunter, 2017. "Neighborhood Priority or Desegregation Plans? A Spatial Analysis of Voting on San Francisco’s Student Assignment System," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(6), pages 805-832, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bernard Grofman & Matt A. Barreto, 2009. "A Reply to Zax's (2002) Critique of Grofman and Migalski (1988)," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 37(4), pages 599-617, May.
    2. Johnston, Ron & Gschwend, Thomas & Pattie, Charles, 2004. "On Estimates of Split-Ticket Voting: EI and EMax," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-40, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    3. Olga Orlanski & Günther G. Schulze, 2017. "The Determinants of Islamophobia - An Empirical Analysis of the Swiss Minaret Referendum," CESifo Working Paper Series 6741, CESifo.
    4. Russell Weaver, 2015. "The Racial Context of Convenience Voting Cutbacks," SAGE Open, , vol. 5(3), pages 21582440155, August.
    5. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    6. Sarah Moon, 2024. "Partial Identification of Individual-Level Parameters Using Aggregate Data in a Nonparametric Model," Papers 2403.07236, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    7. Arianna Degan & Antonio Merlo, 2006. "Do Voters Vote Sincerely?," PIER Working Paper Archive 06-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    8. Camille Kelbel & Virginie Van Ingelgom & Soetkin Verhaegen, 2016. "Looking for the European Voter: Split-Ticket Voting in the Belgian Regional and European Elections of 2009 and 2014," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(1), pages 116-129.
    9. Rosa Bernardini Papalia, 2011. "An information theoretic approach to ecological inference in presence of spatial heterogeneity and dependence," ERSA conference papers ersa11p317, European Regional Science Association.
    10. Cem Ertur & Julie Le Gallo & Catherine Baumont, 2006. "The European Regional Convergence Process, 1980-1995: Do Spatial Regimes and Spatial Dependence Matter?," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 29(1), pages 3-34, January.
    11. Russell, Thomas, 1995. "Aggregation, heterogeneity, and the Coase invariance theorem," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 105-111, May.
    12. Kelly Shue & Erzo F. P. Luttmer, 2009. "Who Misvotes? The Effect of Differential Cognition Costs on Election Outcomes," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 229-257, February.
    13. Albert Solé Ollé, 2010. "The Determinants of the Regional Allocation of Infrastructure Investment in Spain," Chapters, in: Núria Bosch & Marta Espasa & Albert Solé Ollé (ed.), The Political Economy of Inter-Regional Fiscal Flows, chapter 12, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Pratyusna Patnaik, 2013. "Does Political Representation Ensure Empowerment? Scheduled Tribes in Decentralised Local Governments of India," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 8(1), pages 27-60, April.
    15. Hall, Stephen & Mizon, Grayham E. & Welfe, Aleksander, 2000. "Modelling economies in transition: an introduction," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 339-357, August.
    16. Matt Golder & Jacek Stramski, 2010. "Ideological Congruence and Electoral Institutions," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 90-106, January.
    17. Elaine B. Sharp & Mark R. Joslyn, 2008. "Culture, Segregation, and Tolerance in Urban America," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 89(3), pages 573-591, September.
    18. Lehmann, Sibylle H., 2010. "The German Elections in the 1870s: Why Germany Turned from Liberalism to Protectionism," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 146-178, March.
    19. Lang, Corey & Pearson-Merkowitz, Shanna, 2022. "Aggregate data yield biased estimates of voter preferences," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    20. Zachary Elkins & Beth Simmons, 2005. "On Waves, Clusters, and Diffusion: A Conceptual Framework," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 598(1), pages 33-51, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:somere:v:36:y:2007:i:1:p:3-25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.