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When demography is (not) destiny: Exploring identity and issue cross‐pressures among Latino voters in the 2020 presidential election

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  • Álvaro J. Corral
  • David L. Leal

Abstract

Objective Scholars have struggled to understand Donald Trump's surprising levels of Latino support in two consecutive presidential elections. We test three hypotheses to better understand the strength and weakness of Trump, Biden, and both political parties. Methods We conduct bivariate and multivariate analyses of pre‐ and post‐election surveys to identify sources of support (beyond national origin differences) that explain how Trump improved his level of support among Latino voters to reach the low‐ to mid‐ 30 percent range. Results Intra‐Latino differences in ideology, identity (gender and religion), and immigration attitudes help explain Trump's relatively strong showing among Latinos in 2020. Conclusion While the nation's electorate is becoming more demographically diverse, many predictions associated with the notion of “demography as destiny” should be tempered given the political heterogeneity among Latino voters.

Suggested Citation

  • Álvaro J. Corral & David L. Leal, 2024. "When demography is (not) destiny: Exploring identity and issue cross‐pressures among Latino voters in the 2020 presidential election," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1239-1252, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:105:y:2024:i:4:p:1239-1252
    DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.13400
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Margalit, Yotam & Solodoch, Omer, 2022. "Against the Flow: Differentiating Between Public Opposition to the Immigration Stock and Flow," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(3), pages 1055-1075, July.
    2. Alan Yang & Rodolfo O. la Garza, 2017. "Americanizing Latinos, Latinoizing America: The Political Consequences of Latino Incorporation," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 98(2), pages 690-727, June.
    3. Amy Stringer, 2018. "Crossing the Border: Latino Attitudes Toward Immigration Policy," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 701-715, August.
    4. Álvaro J. Corral & David L. Leal, 2020. "Latinos por Trump? Latinos and the 2016 Presidential Election," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 101(3), pages 1115-1131, May.
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