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Estimation of electoral volatility parameters employing ecological inference methods

Author

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  • Pablo Sandoval

    (Universidad Santo Tomás)

  • Silvia Ojeda

    (Universidad Nacional de Córdoba)

Abstract

The general purpose of this work consists in to relate the statistical methods for the estimation of voter transitions rates based on aggregate data, with the problem of inferring the composition of the electorate in a democratic system in seven categories of voters once the second of two consecutive voting processes has been carried out. To know the electorate composition between stable and unstable voters is a matter of relevance to sociology and political science regarding comparative research. Available options to infer these values—electoral polls and panel surveys—present reliability issues arising from lack of recall or concealing on the voting behavior. In view of this situation, we propose an original estimation strategy consisting in to locate the unknown quantities within of a matrix whose sums of entries by rows and columns are known; based on this, such magnitudes can be estimated resorting to Ecological inference methods. The proposal was applied to the case of competition between political conglomerates in Chile for the period 1993–2009, using two types of estimation methods with aggregate data available in the free software R. One of those methods rendered results consistent with previous evidence proceeding from polls. We conclude that the proposed strategy can be replicable on a larger-scale application, even though these methods must, in parallel, remain subject to evaluation and improvement.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Sandoval & Silvia Ojeda, 2023. "Estimation of electoral volatility parameters employing ecological inference methods," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 405-426, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:57:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11135-022-01367-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-022-01367-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carolina Plescia & Lorenzo De Sio, 2018. "An evaluation of the performance and suitability of R × C methods for ecological inference with known true values," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 669-683, March.
    2. Luana Russo, 2014. "Estimating floating voters: a comparison between the ecological inference and the survey methods," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1667-1683, May.
    3. André Klima & Thomas Schlesinger & Paul W. Thurner & Helmut Küchenhoff, 2019. "Combining Aggregate Data and Exit Polls for the Estimation of Voter Transitions," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 48(2), pages 296-325, May.
    4. Luana Russo & Laurent Beauguitte, 2014. "Aggregation level matters: evidence from french electoral data," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 923-938, March.
    5. Antonio Forcina & Davide Pellegrino, 2019. "Estimation of voter transitions and the ecological fallacy," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1859-1874, July.
    6. Ori Rosen & Wenxin Jiang & Gary King & Martin A. Tanner, 2001. "Bayesian and Frequentist Inference for Ecological Inference: The R×C Case," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 55(2), pages 134-156, July.
    7. Gary King & Ori Rosen & Martin A. Tanner, 1999. "Binomial-Beta Hierarchical Models for Ecological Inference," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 28(1), pages 61-90, August.
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