IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/scotjp/v71y2024i3p439-456.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Lockdowns, vaccines, and the economy: How economic perceptions were shaped during the COVID‐19 pandemic†

Author

Listed:
  • Vítor Castro
  • Rodrigo Martins

Abstract

This paper analyses the economic confidence indicators' reaction to the environment surrounding the COVID‐19 pandemic. Using Eurostat's monthly data for the economic sentiment in European Union countries, we found that, in the COVID‐19 era, confidence and perceptions about the economy are strongly dominated by factors related to the pandemic, more so by policy measures and the vaccination process than by the direct health impact of the coronavirus. This is found to be prevalent across the multiple dimensions of economic sentiment. Moreover, standard macroeconomic variables seem to play a smaller and more marginal role during this period.

Suggested Citation

  • Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2024. "Lockdowns, vaccines, and the economy: How economic perceptions were shaped during the COVID‐19 pandemic†," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 71(3), pages 439-456, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:71:y:2024:i:3:p:439-456
    DOI: 10.1111/sjpe.12376
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12376
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/sjpe.12376?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephane Dees & Pedro Soares Brinca, 2013. "Consumer confidence as a predictor of consumption spending: Evidence for the United States and the Euro area," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 134, pages 1-14.
    2. Thiemo Fetzer & Lukas Hensel & Johannes Hermle & Christopher Roth, 2021. "Coronavirus Perceptions and Economic Anxiety," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(5), pages 968-978, December.
    3. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    4. Bruno, Giovanni S.F., 2005. "Approximating the bias of the LSDV estimator for dynamic unbalanced panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 361-366, June.
    5. Laura Nowzohour & Livio Stracca, 2020. "More Than A Feeling: Confidence, Uncertainty, And Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 691-726, September.
    6. Milani, Fabio, 2017. "Sentiment and the U.S. business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 289-311.
    7. repec:cii:cepiei:2013-q2-134-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    9. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    10. Giovanni S. F. Bruno, 2005. "Estimation and inference in dynamic unbalanced panel-data models with a small number of individuals," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 5(4), pages 473-500, December.
    11. Joseph N. Luchman, 2021. "Determining relative importance in Stata using dominance analysis: domin and domme," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 21(2), pages 510-538, June.
    12. Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents' Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(422), pages 1-19, January.
    13. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Measuring the effectiveness of US monetary policy during the COVID‐19 recession," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 287-297, July.
    14. Jess Benhabib & Mark M Spiegel, 2019. "Sentiments and Economic Activity: Evidence from US States," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(618), pages 715-733.
    15. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2004. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 51-66, Spring.
    16. Suzanna Elmassah & Shereen Bacheer & Eslam Hassanein, 2022. "US consumers' confidence and responses to COVID-19 shock," Review of Economics and Political Science, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 8(3), pages 186-207, April.
    17. Ignace De Vos & Gerdie Everaert & Ilse Ruyssen, 2015. "Bootstrap-based bias correction and inference for dynamic panels with fixed effects," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 15(4), pages 986-1018, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abay,Kibrom A. & Hirfrfot,Kibrom Tafere & Woldemichael,Andinet, 2020. "Winners and Losers from COVID-19 : Global Evidence from Google Search," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9268, The World Bank.
    2. Mali Chivakul & Bernhard Kassner, 2019. "Can Consumption Growth in China Keep Up as Investment Slows?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 381-412, September.
    3. Castro, Vítor & Martins, Rodrigo, 2018. "Politically driven cycles in fiscal policy: In depth analysis of the functional components of government expenditures," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 44-64.
    4. Dietrich, Alexander M. & Kuester, Keith & Müller, Gernot J. & Schoenle, Raphael, 2022. "News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 35-51.
    5. Opolska, Iweta, 2017. "The efficacy of liberalization and privatization in introducing competition into European natural gas markets," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 12-21.
    6. Deimante Teresiene & Greta Keliuotyte-Staniuleniene & Yiyi Liao & Rasa Kanapickiene & Ruihui Pu & Siyan Hu & Xiao-Guang Yue, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumer and Business Confidence Indicators," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-23, April.
    7. Willem Vanlaer & Samantha Bielen & Wim Marneffe, 2020. "Consumer Confidence and Household Saving Behaviors: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 147(2), pages 677-721, January.
    8. Sudeshna Ghosh, 2021. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending in Brazil: A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Analysis," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 20(1), pages 53-85, June.
    9. Simona Malovaná & Martin Hodula & Jan Frait, 2021. "What Does Really Drive Consumer Confidence?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 885-913, June.
    10. van der Wielen, Wouter & Barrios, Salvador, 2021. "Economic sentiment during the COVID pandemic: Evidence from search behaviour in the EU," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    11. Yuliya Rychalovska & Sergey Slobodyan & Rafael Wouters, 2023. "Professional Survey Forecasts and Expectations in DSGE Models," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp766, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    12. Eicher, Theo S. & Schreiber, Till, 2010. "Structural policies and growth: Time series evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 169-179, January.
    13. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Xuan Wang, 2023. "Support for small businesses amid COVID‐19," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(358), pages 612-652, April.
    14. Simplice Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2020. "Financial access, governance and insurance sector development in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 47(4), pages 849-875, February.
    15. Ginters Bušs & Patrick Grüning, 2023. "Fiscal DSGE model for Latvia," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 2173915-217.
    16. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2020. "Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27281, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Graham, James & Ozbilgin, Murat, 2021. "Age, industry, and unemployment risk during a pandemic lockdown," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    18. Beland, Louis-Philippe & Brodeur, Abel & Wright, Taylor, 2020. "COVID-19, Stay-at-Home Orders and Employment: Evidence from CPS Data," GLO Discussion Paper Series 559, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    19. Hansj?rg Bl?chliger & Bal?zs ?gert, 2017. "Intergovernmental Transfers: Are they pro- or counter-cyclical?," ECONOMIA PUBBLICA, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2017(3), pages 5-20.
    20. Raf Van Gestel & Tobias Müller & Johan Bosmans, 2018. "Learning from failure in healthcare: Dynamic panel evidence of a physician shock effect," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(9), pages 1340-1353, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:71:y:2024:i:3:p:439-456. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sesssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.