IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/scjsta/v50y2023i1p358-382.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exact uniformly most powerful postselection confidence distributions

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea C. Garcia‐Angulo
  • Gerda Claeskens

Abstract

A conditioning on the event of having selected one model from a set of possibly misspecified normal linear regression models leads to the construction of uniformly optimal conditional confidence distributions. They can be used for valid postselection inference. The constructed conditional confidence distributions are finite sample exact and encompass all information regarding the focus parameter in the selected model. This includes the construction of optimal postselection confidence intervals at all significance levels and uniformly most powerful hypothesis tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea C. Garcia‐Angulo & Gerda Claeskens, 2023. "Exact uniformly most powerful postselection confidence distributions," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 50(1), pages 358-382, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:scjsta:v:50:y:2023:i:1:p:358-382
    DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12581
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjos.12581
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/sjos.12581?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Kabaila, 2009. "The Coverage Properties of Confidence Regions After Model Selection," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 77(3), pages 405-414, December.
    2. White,Halbert, 1996. "Estimation, Inference and Specification Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521574464, September.
    3. Danijel Kivaranovic & Hannes Leeb, 2021. "On the Length of Post-Model-Selection Confidence Intervals Conditional on Polyhedral Constraints," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(534), pages 845-857, April.
    4. Bo Henry Lindqvist & Gunnar Taraldsen, 2005. "Monte Carlo conditioning on a sufficient statistic," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 92(2), pages 451-464, June.
    5. MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert, 1985. "Some heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators with improved finite sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 305-325, September.
    6. Claeskens,Gerda & Hjort,Nils Lid, 2008. "Model Selection and Model Averaging," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521852258, October.
    7. Min-ge Xie & Kesar Singh, 2013. "Confidence Distribution, the Frequentist Distribution Estimator of a Parameter: A Review," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 81(1), pages 3-39, April.
    8. Xiaoying Tian & Joshua R Loftus & Jonathan E Taylor, 2018. "Selective inference with unknown variance via the square-root lasso," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 105(4), pages 755-768.
    9. Tore Schweder & Nils Lid Hjort, 2002. "Confidence and Likelihood," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 29(2), pages 309-332, June.
    10. Xiaoying Tian & Jonathan Taylor, 2017. "Asymptotics of Selective Inference," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 44(2), pages 480-499, June.
    11. Danilov, Dmitry & Magnus, J.R.Jan R., 2004. "On the harm that ignoring pretesting can cause," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 27-46, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jelle J Goeman & Aldo Solari, 2024. "On selection and conditioning in multiple testing and selective inference," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 111(2), pages 393-416.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. La Vecchia, Davide & Moor, Alban & Scaillet, Olivier, 2023. "A higher-order correct fast moving-average bootstrap for dependent data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 65-81.
    2. Hai Wang & Xinjie Chen & Nancy Flournoy, 2016. "The focused information criterion for varying-coefficient partially linear measurement error models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 99-113, March.
    3. De Luca, Giuseppe & Magnus, Jan R. & Peracchi, Franco, 2018. "Weighted-average least squares estimation of generalized linear models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 204(1), pages 1-17.
    4. Xiaokang Luo & Tirthankar Dasgupta & Minge Xie & Regina Y. Liu, 2021. "Leveraging the Fisher randomization test using confidence distributions: Inference, combination and fusion learning," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 83(4), pages 777-797, September.
    5. Jelle J Goeman & Aldo Solari, 2024. "On selection and conditioning in multiple testing and selective inference," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 111(2), pages 393-416.
    6. Piero Veronese & Eugenio Melilli, 2021. "Confidence Distribution for the Ability Parameter of the Rasch Model," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 86(1), pages 131-166, March.
    7. Paul Kabaila & A. H. Welsh & Waruni Abeysekera, 2016. "Model-Averaged Confidence Intervals," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 43(1), pages 35-48, March.
    8. Yang Liu & Jan Hannig, 2017. "Generalized Fiducial Inference for Logistic Graded Response Models," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1097-1125, December.
    9. Tae-Hwan Kim & Halbert White, 2003. "Estimation, Inference, And Specification Testing For Possibly Misspecified Quantile Regression," Advances in Econometrics, in: Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models: Twenty Years Later, pages 107-132, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    10. Nancy Reid & David R. Cox, 2015. "On Some Principles of Statistical Inference," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 83(2), pages 293-308, August.
    11. Wan, Alan T.K. & Zhang, Xinyu & Wang, Shouyang, 2014. "Frequentist model averaging for multinomial and ordered logit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 118-128.
    12. repec:jss:jstsof:16:i09 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Xinyu Zhang & Alan T. K. Wan & Sherry Z. Zhou, 2011. "Focused Information Criteria, Model Selection, and Model Averaging in a Tobit Model With a Nonzero Threshold," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 132-142, June.
    14. Xuhua Liu & Xingzhong Xu, 2016. "Confidence distribution inferences in one-way random effects model," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 25(1), pages 59-74, March.
    15. Eugenio Melilli & Piero Veronese, 2024. "Confidence distributions and hypothesis testing," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 65(6), pages 3789-3820, August.
    16. Ghosh, D. & Yuan, Z., 2009. "An improved model averaging scheme for logistic regression," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(8), pages 1670-1681, September.
    17. Zeileis, Achim, 2006. "Object-oriented Computation of Sandwich Estimators," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 16(i09).
    18. David R. Bickel, 2014. "Small-scale Inference: Empirical Bayes and Confidence Methods for as Few as a Single Comparison," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 82(3), pages 457-476, December.
    19. Judith Anne Clarke, 2017. "Model Averaging OLS and 2SLS: An Application of the WALS Procedure," Econometrics Working Papers 1701, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    20. Magnus, Jan R. & Wan, Alan T.K. & Zhang, Xinyu, 2011. "Weighted average least squares estimation with nonspherical disturbances and an application to the Hong Kong housing market," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 1331-1341, March.
    21. Jochen Heberle & Cristina Sattarhoff, 2017. "A Fast Algorithm for the Computation of HAC Covariance Matrix Estimators," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-16, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:scjsta:v:50:y:2023:i:1:p:358-382. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0303-6898 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.