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Estimating Monetary Policy Rules For South Africa

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  • Tobias Knedlik

Abstract

The paper combines the estimation of the Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) with the theoretic modelling of optimal monetary policy in South Africa. The idea that monetary policy is not only interested in optimal monetary conditions but also in external stability, provides the basis for the analysis. The paper introduces the concept of the MCI and estimates the relative influence of interest rates and exchange rates on the output gap. The estimated weights are 1.9:1. This estimation results is used to specify operating target rules for South African monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias Knedlik, 2006. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules For South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(4), pages 629-641, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:74:y:2006:i:4:p:629-641
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1813-6982.2006.00091.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2001. "Managed Floating: Understanding the New International Monetary Order," CEPR Discussion Papers 3064, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Alfred Guender, 2005. "On Optimal Monetary Policy Rules and the Construction of MCIs in the Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 189-207, April.
    3. Charles Freedman, 1995. "The role of monetary conditions and the monetary conditions index in the conduct of policy [speech]," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1995(Autumn), pages 53-59.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stan du Plessis & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2007. "Identifying aggregate supply and demand shocks in South Africa," Working Papers 11/2007, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    2. Stan du Plessis & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2008. "Identifying Aggregate Supply and Demand Shocks in South Africa †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 17(5), pages 765-793, November.
    3. repec:lan:wpaper:2364 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:lan:wpaper:2587 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Naraidoo, Ruthira & Paya, Ivan, 2012. "Forecasting monetary policy rules in South Africa," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 446-455.
    6. Fredj Jawadi & Sushanta K. Mallick & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules in the BRICS: How Important is Nonlinearity?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    7. H.a. Mitchell‐innes & M.j. Aziakpono & A.p. Faure, 2007. "Inflation Targeting And The Fisher Effect In South Africa: An Empirical Investigation," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(4), pages 693-707, December.
    8. ?lyas ??klar & Burhan Do?an, 2015. "Monetary Condition Index with Time Varying Weights: An Application to Turkish Data," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 5(1), pages 117-132, June.
    9. Mallick, Sushanta K. & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2012. "Real Effects Of Monetary Policy In Large Emerging Economies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S2), pages 190-212, September.
    10. repec:lan:wpaper:2444 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Stan Du Plessis & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2007. "The Cyclicality Of Monetary And Fiscal Policy In South Africa Since 1994," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(3), pages 391-411, September.
    12. Bui Thanh Trung, 2022. "Measuring Monetary Policy in Emerging Economy: The Role of Monetary Condition Index," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 70(6), pages 499-522, June.

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