IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mos/moswps/2010-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A monetary policy rule: The augmented Monetary Conditions Index for Philippines using UECM and bounds tests

Author

Listed:
  • Wai-Ching Poon

Abstract

This paper constructs the augmented monetary conditions index (AMCI) over 1982:1-2004:4 using UECM and bounds test approach for the Philippines data. Results reveal evidence of cointegration between the real GDP and its determinants, namely short-term interest rate, exchange rate and claims on private sectors that take into account three key transmission mechanisms channels in the conduct of monetary policy, namely the interest rate, exchange rate and credit channels. While asset price channel is found to be insignificant. The monetary conditions during the study periods is reflected in the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’s reaction to the prevailing economic situation, imply that the AMCI tracks the inverse movements of the real GDP growth reasonably well after 1990s. Possible light of policy implications have put forward.

Suggested Citation

  • Wai-Ching Poon, 2010. "A monetary policy rule: The augmented Monetary Conditions Index for Philippines using UECM and bounds tests," Monash Economics Working Papers 04-10, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:mos:moswps:2010-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/eco/research/papers/2010/0410monetarypoon.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bayangos, V.B., 2000. "real monetary conditions index for the Philippines : is it useful?," ISS Working Papers - General Series 19054, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    2. Bardsen, Gunnar, 1989. "Estimation of Long Run Coefficients in Error Correction Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(3), pages 345-350, August.
    3. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    4. Gottschalk, Jan, 2001. "Monetary Conditions in the Euro Area: Useful Indicators of Aggregate Demand Conditions?," Kiel Working Papers 1037, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    6. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 2000. "MCIs and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1677-1700, October.
    7. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    8. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "The Channels of Monetary Transmission: Lessons for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
    10. Duguay, Pierre, 1994. "Empirical evidence on the strength of the monetary transmission mechanism in Canada: An aggregate approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 39-61, February.
    11. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    12. Charles Freedman, 1995. "The role of monetary conditions and the monetary conditions index in the conduct of policy [speech]," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1995(Autumn), pages 53-59.
    13. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    14. Wensheng Peng & Frank Leung, 2005. "A Monetary Conditions Index for Mainland China," Working Papers 0501, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    15. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2001. "Managed Floating: Understanding the New International Monetary Order," CEPR Discussion Papers 3064, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Roger Perman, 1991. "Cointegration: An Introduction to the Literature," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 3-30, September.
    17. Peeters, Marga, 1999. "Measuring monetary conditions in Europe: Use and limitations of the monetary conditions index," MPRA Paper 23534, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Alfred Guender, 2005. "On Optimal Monetary Policy Rules and the Construction of MCIs in the Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 189-207, April.
    19. Cheng Hsiao, 1997. "Cointegration and Dynamic Simultaneous Equations Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 647-670, May.
    20. Frank Smets, 1997. "Financial-asset Prices and Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Philip Lowe (ed.),Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    21. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2001_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. W. De Wet, 2002. "Coping With Inflation And Exchange Rate Shocks In The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 70(1), pages 78-94, March.
    23. P. Burger & T. Knedlik, 2004. "The Mci As A Monetary Policy Guide In A Small, Open Emerging Market Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 72(2), pages 365-383, June.
    24. repec:bla:sajeco:v:70:y:2002:i:1:p:78-78 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Erasmus L. Owusu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2014. "Financial liberalisation and economic growth in Nigeria: an ARDL-bounds testing approach," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 164-177, June.
    2. Erasmus L. Owusu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2014. "Stock market development and economic growth in Ghana: an ARDL-bounds testing approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 229-234, March.
    3. Erasmus L Owusu, 2016. "Stock Market and Sustainable Economic Growth in Nigeria," Economies, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-13, November.
    4. Bui Thanh Trung, 2022. "Measuring Monetary Policy in Emerging Economy: The Role of Monetary Condition Index," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 70(6), pages 499-522, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wai Ching Poon, 2010. "Augmented MCi: AN Indicator Of Monetary Policy Stance For ASEAN-5?," Monash Economics Working Papers 25-10, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    2. Wai Ching Poon, 2010. "Testing Transmission Mechanisms on Economic Growth in Malaysia," Monash Economics Working Papers 26-10, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    3. Wai-Ching Poon, 2008. "Does Credit Channel Matter in the Conduct of Monetary Policy in Singapore?," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 40-50, August.
    4. P. Burger & T. Knedlik, 2004. "The Mci As A Monetary Policy Guide In A Small, Open Emerging Market Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 72(2), pages 365-383, June.
    5. Ramaharo, Franck Maminirina & Razanajatovo, Yves Heritiana Mihaja & Ravelomanantsoa, Fabienne Mahefatiana & Ramarosandratana, Saotra Finiavana Melodia & Aljaona, Emanuella Miora, 2024. "The impact of energy demand on economic growth: A new empirical evidence for Madagascar," AfricArxiv xwktc, Center for Open Science.
    6. Christophe Blot & Grégory Levieuge, 2008. "Are MCIs Good Indicators of Economic Activity ? Evidence from the G7 Countries," Working Papers hal-00973056, HAL.
    7. Yaya Keho, 2011. "Long‐Run Determinants Of Savings Rates In Waemu Countries: An Empirical Assessment From Ardl Bounds Testing Approach," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(3), pages 312-329, September.
    8. Christophe BLOT & Grégory LEVIEUGE, 2008. "Are MCIs Good Indicators of Countries Economic Activity ? Evidence from the G7 Countries," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 244, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    9. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/6156 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Naseem, N.A.M & Tan, Hui-Boon & Hamizah, M.S, 2008. "Exchange Rate Misalignment, Volatility and Import Flows in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 41571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Durmaz, Tunç & Pommeret, Aude & Tastan, Hüseyin, 2020. "Estimation of residential electricity demand in Hong Kong under electricity charge subsidies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    12. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6156 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Bayangos, V.B., 2000. "real monetary conditions index for the Philippines : is it useful?," ISS Working Papers - General Series 19054, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    14. Jamilov, Rustam, 2012. "Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS," MPRA Paper 39568, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6156 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6156 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Ali MNA & Moheddine YOUNSI, 2018. "A monetary conditions index and its application on Tunisian economic forecasting," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 38-56, March.
    18. Nikeel Kumar & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Radika Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann, 2020. "Is the tourism–growth relationship asymmetric in the Cook Islands? Evidence from NARDL cointegration and causality tests," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(4), pages 658-681, June.
    19. Sinha, Avik & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Estimation of Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 emission: Role of renewable energy generation in India," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 703-711.
    20. Caner Demir, 2019. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Fluctuations: The Case of BIST-100," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-14, February.
    21. Halicioglu, Ferda & Ketenci, Natalya, 2015. "The impact of international trade on environmental quality in transition countries: evidence from time series data during 1991-2013," MPRA Paper 71097, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    22. Janusz Myszczyszyn & Błażej Suproń, 2022. "Relationship among Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, CO 2 Emission, and Urbanization: An Econometric Perspective Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-18, December.
    23. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "Financial development and poverty reduction nexus: A cointegration and causality analysis in Bangladesh," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 405-412.
    24. Richard Dennis, 1997. "A measure of monetary conditions," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/1, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    AMCI; monetary policy; cointegration; bounds test; UECM; transmission mechanisms;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mos:moswps:2010-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Simon Angus (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dxmonau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.