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生育率波动与土地流失对城郊家庭养老的侵蚀性影响
[The Erosion Effect of the Fertility Fluctuation and Soil Erosion on Elderly Supporting of Suburban Families]

Author

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  • Zoutieding, Tieding

Abstract

本文运用改进OLG模型研究生育率波动和土地流失及其交互作用对家庭养老资源的侵蚀机制，并利用2000-2017年的经济与社会发展数据测度分析人口与土地的侵蚀效应以及公共养老保险的修正作用。结果显示，生育率下降导致人均赡养负担增加、轮养可行性降低以及赡养支持不充足。土地流失导致家庭地租收益减少、子女经济条件变差、老人生活来源失去多样性以及自养能力被削弱。因土地品质及所处地理位置的不同，近郊级差地租损失对家庭养老的影响要大于远郊地区。土地承包经营制度的存在，使得生育率波动和土地流失会强化彼此对家庭养老的侵蚀性影响。将低生育率和土地流失家庭纳入公共养老保险体系，可减轻对子女和土地的依赖，提高对老人的保障能力。家庭养老问题的解决一要积极发挥子女的作用，适时放宽生育限制；二要节约利用土地资源，加强对土地承包经营权及其获益权的保护；三要重视制度的作用，加强公共养老保险体系建设；四要充分发挥社区、街道、公益组织、商业保险以及孝道文化的辅助支撑作用。

Suggested Citation

  • Zoutieding, Tieding, 2018. "生育率波动与土地流失对城郊家庭养老的侵蚀性影响 [The Erosion Effect of the Fertility Fluctuation and Soil Erosion on Elderly Supporting of Suburban Families]," MPRA Paper 101626, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Dec 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:101626
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    养老保险；家庭养老；生育率波动；土地流失；老龄化;

    JEL classification:

    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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