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Projections of the Ethnic Minority Populations of the United Kingdom 2006–2056

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  • David Coleman

Abstract

The ethnic minority populations in the UK are growing substantially through immigration, a youthful age structure, and in some cases relatively high fertility. Their diverse demographic and socioeconomic characteristics have attracted considerable academic and policy attention, especially insofar as those distinctive characteristics have persisted in the generations born in the UK. No official projections of the UK ethnic populations have been published since 1979. This article provides projections to 2056 and beyond of 12 ethnic groups. Given overall net immigration and vital rates as assumed in the office for National Statistics 2008‐based Principal Projection, and the ethnic characteristics estimated here, the ethnic minority populations (including the Other White) would increase from 13 percent of the UK population in 2006 to 28 percent by 2031 and 44 percent by 2056, and to about half the 0–4 age group in 2056. Alternative projections assume various lower levels of immigration. Possible implications of projected changes are discussed.

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  • David Coleman, 2010. "Projections of the Ethnic Minority Populations of the United Kingdom 2006–2056," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(3), pages 441-486, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:36:y:2010:i:3:p:441-486
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00342.x
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    1. Tarvainen Kyösti, 2018. "Population projections for Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland, 2015–2065," Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, Sciendo, vol. 39(39), pages 147-160, March.
    2. Brenda Hayanga & Mai Stafford & Laia Bécares, 2021. "Ethnic Inequalities in Healthcare Use and Care Quality among People with Multiple Long-Term Health Conditions Living in the United Kingdom: A Systematic Review and Narrative Synthesis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-23, November.
    3. Samuel Bazzi & Arya Gaduh & Alexander D. Rothenberg & Maisy Wong, 2019. "Unity in Diversity? How Intergroup Contact Can Foster Nation Building," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3978-4025, November.
    4. Miri Song, 2015. "What Constitutes Intermarriage for Multiracial People in Britain?," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 662(1), pages 94-111, November.
    5. Daniel Lichter, 2013. "Integration or Fragmentation? Racial Diversity and the American Future," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(2), pages 359-391, April.
    6. Tom Wilson, 2016. "Visualising the demographic factors which shape population age structure," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(29), pages 867-890.
    7. Tom Wilson & Jeromey Temple & Anthony Lyons, 2021. "Projecting the sexual minority population: Methods, data, and illustrative projections for Australia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(12), pages 361-396.

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