IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jtsera/v44y2023i5-6p686-709.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Some recent trends in embeddings of time series and dynamic networks

Author

Listed:
  • Dag Tjøstheim
  • Martin Jullum
  • Anders Løland

Abstract

We give a review of some recent developments in embeddings of time series and dynamic networks. We start out with traditional principal components and then look at extensions to dynamic factor models for time series. Unlike principal components for time series, the literature on time‐varying nonlinear embedding is rather sparse. The most promising approaches in the literature is neural network based, and has recently performed well in forecasting competitions. We also touch on different forms of dynamics in topological data analysis (TDA). The last part of the article deals with embedding of dynamic networks, where we believe there is a gap between available theory and the behavior of most real world networks. We illustrate our review with two simulated examples. Throughout the review, we highlight differences between the static and dynamic case, and point to several open problems in the dynamic case.

Suggested Citation

  • Dag Tjøstheim & Martin Jullum & Anders Løland, 2023. "Some recent trends in embeddings of time series and dynamic networks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5-6), pages 686-709, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:44:y:2023:i:5-6:p:686-709
    DOI: 10.1111/jtsa.12677
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jtsa.12677
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jtsa.12677?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Jullum & Anders Løland & Ragnar Bang Huseby & Geir Ånonsen & Johannes Lorentzen, 2020. "Detecting money laundering transactions with machine learning," Journal of Money Laundering Control, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 23(1), pages 173-186, January.
    2. Crone, Sven F. & Hibon, Michèle & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2011. "Advances in forecasting with neural networks? Empirical evidence from the NN3 competition on time series prediction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 635-660.
    3. Smyl, Slawek, 2020. "A hybrid method of exponential smoothing and recurrent neural networks for time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 75-85.
    4. Taniguchi, M. & Krishnaiah, P. R., 1987. "Asymptotic distributions of functions of the eigenvalues of sample covariance matrix and canonical correlation matrix in multivariate time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 156-176, June.
    5. Xinyu Zhang & Howell Tong, 2022. "Asymptotic theory of principal component analysis for time series data with cautionary comments," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(2), pages 543-565, April.
    6. Lars Arne Jordanger & Dag Tjøstheim, 2022. "Nonlinear Spectral Analysis: A Local Gaussian Approach," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 117(538), pages 1010-1027, April.
    7. Makridakis, Spyros & Hyndman, Rob J. & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2020. "Forecasting in social settings: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 15-28.
    8. Kristoffer H. Hellton & Magne Thoresen, 2017. "When and Why are Principal Component Scores a Good Tool for Visualizing High-dimensional Data?," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 44(3), pages 581-597, September.
    9. Zhang, Xinyu & Tong, Howell, 2022. "Asymptotic theory of principal component analysis for time series data with cautionary comments," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113566, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
    11. Makridakis, Spyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2020. "The M4 Competition: 100,000 time series and 61 forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 54-74.
    12. Daniel Peña & Victor J. Yohai, 2016. "Generalized Dynamic Principal Components," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(515), pages 1121-1131, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    2. Semenoglou, Artemios-Anargyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Makridakis, Spyros & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2021. "Investigating the accuracy of cross-learning time series forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1072-1084.
    3. Bojer, Casper Solheim & Meldgaard, Jens Peder, 2021. "Kaggle forecasting competitions: An overlooked learning opportunity," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 587-603.
    4. Nghia Chu & Binh Dao & Nga Pham & Huy Nguyen & Hien Tran, 2022. "Predicting Mutual Funds' Performance using Deep Learning and Ensemble Techniques," Papers 2209.09649, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    5. Wellens, Arnoud P. & Boute, Robert N. & Udenio, Maximiliano, 2024. "Simplifying tree-based methods for retail sales forecasting with explanatory variables," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 314(2), pages 523-539.
    6. Makridakis, Spyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2020. "The M4 Competition: 100,000 time series and 61 forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 54-74.
    7. Wilson, Tom & Grossman, Irina & Temple, Jeromey, 2023. "Evaluation of the best M4 competition methods for small area population forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 110-122.
    8. Wellens, Arnoud P. & Udenio, Maxi & Boute, Robert N., 2022. "Transfer learning for hierarchical forecasting: Reducing computational efforts of M5 winning methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1482-1491.
    9. Hewamalage, Hansika & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bandara, Kasun, 2021. "Recurrent Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting: Current status and future directions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 388-427.
    10. Spiliotis, Evangelos & Makridakis, Spyros & Kaltsounis, Anastasios & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2021. "Product sales probabilistic forecasting: An empirical evaluation using the M5 competition data," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    11. Winita Sulandari & Yudho Yudhanto & Sri Subanti & Crisma Devika Setiawan & Riskhia Hapsari & Paulo Canas Rodrigues, 2023. "Comparing the Simple to Complex Automatic Methods with the Ensemble Approach in Forecasting Electrical Time Series Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-16, November.
    12. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 2019-4, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    13. Makridakis, Spyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Chen, Zhi & Gaba, Anil & Tsetlin, Ilia & Winkler, Robert L., 2022. "The M5 uncertainty competition: Results, findings and conclusions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1365-1385.
    14. Bojer, Casper Solheim, 2022. "Understanding machine learning-based forecasting methods: A decomposition framework and research opportunities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1555-1561.
    15. Makridakis, Spyros & Hyndman, Rob J. & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2020. "Forecasting in social settings: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 15-28.
    16. Gonca Gürses-Tran & Antonello Monti, 2022. "Advances in Time Series Forecasting Development for Power Systems’ Operation with MLOps," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-24, May.
    17. Montero-Manso, Pablo & Hyndman, Rob J., 2021. "Principles and algorithms for forecasting groups of time series: Locality and globality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1632-1653.
    18. Nasios, Ioannis & Vogklis, Konstantinos, 2022. "Blending gradient boosted trees and neural networks for point and probabilistic forecasting of hierarchical time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1448-1459.
    19. Smucler, Ezequiel, 2019. "Consistency of generalized dynamic principal components in dynamic factor models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 1-1.
    20. Fayed Alshammri & Jiazhu Pan, 2021. "Moving dynamic principal component analysis for non-stationary multivariate time series," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 2247-2287, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:44:y:2023:i:5-6:p:686-709. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0143-9782 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.