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SPURIOUS REGRESSIONS BETWEEN I(d) PROCESSES

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  • Francesc Marmol

Abstract

. This paper develops an analytical study for the nonsense or spurious regressions that are generated by quite general integrated (of order d) random processes. In doing this, we generalize the work of Phillips (Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics. J. Econ. 33 (1986), 311–40) who provided an analytical study of linear regressions involving only I(1) stochastic processes. Our generalization of Phillips' work to the I(d) case is made employing fractional differencing techniques.

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  • Francesc Marmol, 1995. "SPURIOUS REGRESSIONS BETWEEN I(d) PROCESSES," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 313-321, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:16:y:1995:i:3:p:313-321
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9892.1995.tb00236.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    2. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
    3. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2005. "Challenges of trending time series econometrics," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 401-416.
    2. Kim, Chang Sik & Lee, Sungro, 2011. "Spurious regressions driven by excessive volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 292-297.
    3. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa‐Santaulària, 2006. "Spurious Regression Under Broken‐Trend Stationarity," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 671-684, September.
    4. Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, 2007. "Spurious Instrumental Variables," Department of Economics and Finance Working Papers EM200704, Universidad de Guanajuato, Department of Economics and Finance, revised Mar 2009.
    5. Marmol, Francesc, 1997. "Fractional integration versus trend stationary in time series analysis," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 10498, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    6. Chris Stewart, 2011. "A note on spurious significance in regressions involving I(0) and I(1) variables," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 565-571, December.
    7. J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés, 2021. "Temperature Anomalies, Long Memory, and Aggregation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, March.
    8. Antonio E. Noriega & School of Economics, University of Guanajuato & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulà ria & School of Economics, University of Guanajuato, 2006. "Spurious regression and econometric trends," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 151, Society for Computational Economics.
    9. Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2000. "Robust CUSUM-M test in the presence of long-memory disturbances," Technical Reports 2000,19, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    10. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, 2005. "Spurious regression under deterministic and stochastic trends," Department of Economics and Finance Working Papers EM200503, Universidad de Guanajuato, Department of Economics and Finance.
    11. Walter Kramer & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2002. "Testing for Structural Changes in the Presence of Long Memory," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 1(3), pages 235-242, December.
    12. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa‐Santaulària, 2007. "Spurious Regression and Trending Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(3), pages 439-444, June.
    13. Manuel Gómez Zaldivar & Oscar Manjarrez Castro & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2009. "Regresión espuria en especificaciones dinámicas," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 1-20, May.
    14. Stewart, Chris, 2006. "Spurious correlation of I(0) regressors in models with an I(1) dependent variable," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 184-189, May.
    15. D. Ventosa-Santaulària, 2009. "Spurious Regression," Journal of Probability and Statistics, Hindawi, vol. 2009, pages 1-27, August.
    16. Mármol, Francesc, 1999. "How spurious features arise in case of fractional cointegration," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6349, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    17. Peter C. B. Phillips & Xiaohu Wang & Yonghui Zhang, 2019. "HAR Testing for Spurious Regression in Trend," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-28, December.
    18. Kruse Robinson & Ventosa-Santaulària Daniel & Noriega Antonio E., 2017. "Changes in persistence, spurious regressions and the Fisher hypothesis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 1-28, June.
    19. Christos Agiakloglou, 2013. "Resolving spurious regressions and serially correlated errors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1361-1366, December.

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