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Spurious Instrumental Variables

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  • Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel

Abstract

Spurious regression phenomenon has been recognized for a wide range of Data Generating Processes: driftless unit roots, unit roots with drift, long memory, trend and broken-trend stationarity, etc. The usual framework is Ordinary Least Squares. We show that the spurious phenomenon also occurs in Instrumental Variables estimation when using non-stationary variables, whether the non-stationarity component is stochastic or deterministic. Finite sample evidence supports the asymptotic results.

Suggested Citation

  • Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel, 2008. "Spurious Instrumental Variables," MPRA Paper 59005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:59005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    2. Entorf, Horst, 1997. "Random walks with drifts: Nonsense regression and spurious fixed-effect estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 287-296, October.
    3. Perron, Pierre & Zhu, Xiaokang, 2005. "Structural breaks with deterministic and stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 65-119.
    4. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa‐Santaulària, 2007. "Spurious Regression and Trending Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(3), pages 439-444, June.
    5. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
    6. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa‐Santaulària, 2006. "Spurious Regression Under Broken‐Trend Stationarity," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 671-684, September.
    7. Uwe Hasseler, 2000. "Simple Regressions with Linear Time Trends," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 27-32, January.
    8. Francesc Marmol, 1995. "SPURIOUS REGRESSIONS BETWEEN I(d) PROCESSES," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 313-321, May.
    9. Kim, Tae-Hwan & Lee, Young-Sook & Newbold, Paul, 2004. "Spurious regressions with stationary processes around linear trends," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 257-262, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Escañuela Romana, Ignacio, 2018. "La elasticidad precio de la demanda de transporte aéreo de pasajeros en los Estados Unidos [The price elasticity of demand for air travel in the United States]," MPRA Paper 83572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. D. Ventosa-Santaulària, 2009. "Spurious Regression," Journal of Probability and Statistics, Hindawi, vol. 2009, pages 1-27, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    IV Estimator; Spurious Regression; Broken-Trend stationarity; Unit Root.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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