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A re-analysis of the long-term effects on life expectancy of the Great Finnish Famine of 1866-68

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  • Gabriele Doblhammer
  • Gerard J. van den Berg
  • L. H. Lumey

Abstract

The results of studies exploring the long-term consequences of famine during foetal or infant development are inconsistent. We tested the hypothesis that selection forces occurring during a famine change the distribution of frailty in the affected cohorts, possibly hiding negative long-term effects. Using mortality data for Finland, gathered from the Human Mortality Database, we explored the effect of being born during the Great Finnish Famine of 1866-68 by comparing mortality at age 60 and over for the 1850-89 births, taking into account unobserved cohort heterogeneity. Contemporaneous Swedish cohorts, unexposed to the famine, were used as an additional control group. When cohort heterogeneity is accounted for, a lower life expectancy at age 60 for male cohorts in Finland born during the famine is observed. The results for females are less conclusive. No substantial changes are seen in the Swedish cohorts. In order to provide consistent estimates of the long-run effects of famines, selection forces need to be considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriele Doblhammer & Gerard J. van den Berg & L. H. Lumey, 2013. "A re-analysis of the long-term effects on life expectancy of the Great Finnish Famine of 1866-68," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 67(3), pages 309-322, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:3:p:309-322
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.809140
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric B. Schneider & Kota Ogasawara & Tim J. Cole, 2021. "Health Shocks, Recovery, and the First Thousand Days: The Effect of the Second World War on Height Growth in Japanese Children," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(4), pages 1075-1105, December.
    2. Gerard J. van den Berg & Pia R. Pinger & Johannes Schoch, 2016. "Instrumental Variable Estimation of the Causal Effect of Hunger Early in Life on Health Later in Life," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(591), pages 465-506, March.
    3. Scholte, Robert S. & van den Berg, Gerard J. & Lindeboom, Maarten, 2015. "Long-run effects of gestation during the Dutch Hunger Winter famine on labor market and hospitalization outcomes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 17-30.
    4. David McCarthy, 2021. "80 will be the new 70: Old‐age mortality postponement in the United States and its likely effect on the finances of the OASI program," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(2), pages 381-412, June.
    5. Denis Cogneau & Lionel Kesztenbaum, 2016. "Short and long-term impacts of famines: The case of the siege of Paris 1870-1871," Working Papers halshs-01321939, HAL.
    6. Bruno Arpino & Pierluigi Conzo & Francesco Salustri, 2022. "I am a survivor, keep on surviving: early-life exposure to conflict and subjective survival probabilities in adult life," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 471-517, April.
    7. Jiyuan Wang & Rob Alessie & Viola Angelini, 2023. "Exposure in utero to adverse events and health late‐in‐life: Evidence from China," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 541-557, March.
    8. Ingrid K. van Dijk & Angelique Janssens & Ken R. Smith, 2019. "The Long Harm of Childhood: Childhood Exposure to Mortality and Subsequent Risk of Adult Mortality in Utah and The Netherlands," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(5), pages 851-871, December.
    9. Robert Scholte & Gerard J. van den Berg & Maarten Lindeboom & Dorly J.H. Deeg, 2017. "Does the Size of the Effect of Adverse Events at High Ages on Daily‐Life Physical Functioning Depend on the Economic Conditions Around Birth?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 86-103, January.
    10. Groppo, Valeria & Kraehnert, Kati, 2016. "Extreme Weather Events and Child Height: Evidence from Mongolia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 59-78.
    11. Adriana Lleras-Muney & Joseph Price & Dahai Yue, 2020. "The Association Between Educational Attainment and Longevity using Individual Level Data from the 1940 Census," NBER Working Papers 27514, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Schneider, Eric & Ogasawara, Kota & Cole, Tim J., 2020. "The Effect of the Second World War on the Growth Pattern of Height in Japanese Children: Catch-up Growth, Critical Windows and," CEPR Discussion Papers 14808, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Lleras-Muney, Adriana & Price, Joseph & Yue, Dahai, 2022. "The association between educational attainment and longevity using individual-level data from the 1940 census," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

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