IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jrefec/v45y2012i4p846-868.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pricing Mortgage Insurance with Asymmetric Jump Risk and Default Risk: Evidence in the U.S. Housing Market

Author

Listed:
  • Chia-Chien Chang
  • Wei-Yi Huang
  • So-De Shyu

Abstract

This study provides the valuation of mortgage insurance (MI) considering upward and downward jumps in housing prices, which display separate distributions and probabilities of occurrence, and the mortgage insurer’s default risk. The empirical results indicate that the asymmetric double exponential jump diffusion performs better than the log-normally distributed jump diffusion and the Black-Scholes model, generally used in previous literature, to fit the single-family mortgage national average of all home prices in the US. Finally, the sensitivity analysis shows that the MI premium is an increasing function of the normal volatility, the mean down-jump magnitudes, the shock frequency of the abnormal bad events, and the asset-liability structure of the mortgage insurer. In particular, the shock frequency of the abnormal bad events has the largest effect of all parameters on the MI premium. The asset-liability structure of the mortgage insurer and shock frequency of the abnormal bad events have a larger effect of all parameters on the default risk premium. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Chia-Chien Chang & Wei-Yi Huang & So-De Shyu, 2012. "Pricing Mortgage Insurance with Asymmetric Jump Risk and Default Risk: Evidence in the U.S. Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 846-868, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:45:y:2012:i:4:p:846-868
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-011-9307-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-011-9307-2
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11146-011-9307-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    2. Kostas Tsatsaronis & Haibin Zhu, 2004. "What drives housing price dynamics: cross-country evidence," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    3. Pan, Jun, 2002. "The jump-risk premia implicit in options: evidence from an integrated time-series study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 3-50, January.
    4. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Englund, Peter & Ioannides, Yannis M., 1997. "House Price Dynamics: An International Empirical Perspective," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 119-136, June.
    6. Claudio Borio & Patrick McGuire, 2004. "Twin peaks in equity and housing prices?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    7. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    8. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:4:p:823-39 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    10. Jin-Chuan, Duan & Moreau, Arthur F. & Sealey, C. W., 1995. "Deposit insurance and bank interest rate risk: Pricing and regulatory implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1091-1108, September.
    11. Ashok Bardhan & Raša Karapandža & Branko Urošević, 2006. "Valuing Mortgage Insurance Contracts in Emerging Market Economies," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 9-20, February.
    12. Kau, James B, et al, 1992. "A Generalized Valuation Model for Fixed-Rate Residential Mortgages," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 279-299, August.
    13. Bjørn Eraker & Michael Johannes & Nicholas Polson, 2003. "The Impact of Jumps in Volatility and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1269-1300, June.
    14. Gregory D Sutton, 2002. "Explaining changes in house prices," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    15. Ming‐Chi Chen & Chia‐Chien Chang & Shih‐Kuei Lin & So‐De Shyu, 2010. "Estimation of Housing Price Jump Risks and Their Impact on the Valuation of Mortgage Insurance Contracts," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 399-422, June.
    16. Harris, Jack C, 1989. "The Effect of Real Rates of Interest on Housing Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 47-60, February.
    17. James Kau & Donald Keenan, 1999. "Catastrophic Default and Credit Risk for Lending Institutions," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 15(2), pages 87-102, March.
    18. Kau, James B. & Keenan, Donald C. & Muller III, Walter J. & Epperson, James F., 1995. "The Valuation at Origination of Fixed-Rate Mortgages with Default and Prepayment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 5-36, July.
    19. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chang-Chih Chen & Chia-Chien Chang, 2019. "How Big are the Ambiguity-Based Premiums on Mortgage Insurances?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 133-157, January.
    2. Gong, Xiaoye & Li, Ying & Wu, Yang-Che & Yang, Wan-Shiou, 2020. "Pricing various types of mortgage insurances with disposal and discount costs under a mean-reverting Lévy housing price process," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 551(C).
    3. Ephraim Matanda & Eriyoti Chikodza & Farai Kwenda, 2022. "Fuzzy structural risk of default for banks in Southern Africa," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 2141884-214, December.
    4. Dag Einar Sommervoll & Jan de Haan, 2014. "Homes and Castles: Should We Care about Idiosyncratic Risk?," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 90(4), pages 700-716.
    5. Chia-Chien Chang & Min-Teh Yu, 2017. "Valuing Vulnerable Mortgage Insurance Under Capital Forbearance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 558-578, May.
    6. Meng, Qingbin & Huang, Haozheng & Li, Xinyu & Wang, Song, 2023. "Short-selling and corporate default risk: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 398-417.
    7. Chang, Chia-Chien, 2014. "Valuation Of Mortgage Insurance Contracts With Counterparty Default Risk: Reduced-Form Approach," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(2), pages 303-334, May.
    8. Yang, Chih-Yuan & Chang, Chia-Chien, 2024. "Do economic uncertainty and persistence in housing prices matter on mortgage insurance?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 33-44.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ming‐Chi Chen & Chia‐Chien Chang & Shih‐Kuei Lin & So‐De Shyu, 2010. "Estimation of Housing Price Jump Risks and Their Impact on the Valuation of Mortgage Insurance Contracts," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 399-422, June.
    2. Chia-Chien Chang & Min-Teh Yu, 2017. "Valuing Vulnerable Mortgage Insurance Under Capital Forbearance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 558-578, May.
    3. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    4. Lee, Yung-Tsung & Wang, Chou-Wen & Huang, Hong-Chih, 2012. "On the valuation of reverse mortgages with regular tenure payments," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 430-441.
    5. Wu, Yang-Che & Huang, Yi-Ting & Lin, Shih-Kuei & Chuang, Ming-Che, 2017. "Fair valuation of mortgage insurance under stochastic default and interest rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 433-447.
    6. Mark Broadie & Jerome B. Detemple, 2004. "ANNIVERSARY ARTICLE: Option Pricing: Valuation Models and Applications," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1145-1177, September.
    7. Yang, Chih-Yuan & Chang, Chia-Chien, 2024. "Do economic uncertainty and persistence in housing prices matter on mortgage insurance?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 33-44.
    8. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    9. Michael C. Fu & Bingqing Li & Rongwen Wu & Tianqi Zhang, 2020. "Option Pricing Under a Discrete-Time Markov Switching Stochastic Volatility with Co-Jump Model," Papers 2006.15054, arXiv.org.
    10. Blessing Taruvinga & Boda Kang & Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos, 2018. "Pricing American Options with Jumps in Asset and Volatility," Research Paper Series 394, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    11. Boda Kang & Christina Nikitopoulos Sklibosios & Erik Schlogl & Blessing Taruvinga, 2019. "The Impact of Jumps on American Option Pricing: The S&P 100 Options Case," Research Paper Series 397, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    12. O. Samimi & Z. Mardani & S. Sharafpour & F. Mehrdoust, 2017. "LSM Algorithm for Pricing American Option Under Heston–Hull–White’s Stochastic Volatility Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 50(2), pages 173-187, August.
    13. Chen, Bin & Song, Zhaogang, 2013. "Testing whether the underlying continuous-time process follows a diffusion: An infinitesimal operator-based approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 83-107.
    14. Glasserman, Paul & Kim, Kyoung-Kuk, 2009. "Saddlepoint approximations for affine jump-diffusion models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 15-36, January.
    15. Benítez-Silva, Hugo & Eren, Selçuk & Heiland, Frank & Jiménez-Martín, Sergi, 2015. "How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 12-25.
    16. Cosma, Antonio & Galluccio, Stefano & Pederzoli, Paola & Scaillet, Olivier, 2020. "Early Exercise Decision in American Options with Dividends, Stochastic Volatility, and Jumps," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(1), pages 331-356, February.
    17. Werner Hürlimann, 2012. "Valuation of fixed and variable rate mortgages: binomial tree versus analytical approximations," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 35(2), pages 171-202, November.
    18. Antonio Cosma & Stefano Galluccio & Paola Pederzoli & O. Scaillet, 2012. "Valuing American Options Using Fast Recursive Projections," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 12-26, Swiss Finance Institute.
    19. Oleksandr Zhylyevskyy, 2010. "A fast Fourier transform technique for pricing American options under stochastic volatility," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24, April.
    20. Chen, Ding & Härkönen, Hannu J. & Newton, David P., 2014. "Advancing the universality of quadrature methods to any underlying process for option pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 600-612.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgage insurance contract; Asymmetric double exponential jump diffusion process; Default risk; G1; G2;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:45:y:2012:i:4:p:846-868. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.