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Nowcasting COVID‐19 deaths in England by age and region

Author

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  • Shaun R. Seaman
  • Pantelis Samartsidis
  • Meaghan Kall
  • Daniela De Angelis

Abstract

Understanding the trajectory of the daily number of COVID‐19 deaths is essential to decisions on how to respond to the pandemic, but estimating this trajectory is complicated by the delay between deaths occurring and being reported. In England the delay is typically several days, but it can be weeks. This causes considerable uncertainty about how many deaths occurred in recent days. Here we estimate the deaths per day in five age strata within seven English regions, using a Bayesian model that accounts for reporting‐day effects and longer‐term changes in the delay distribution. We show how the model can be computationally efficiently fitted when the delay distribution is the same in multiple strata, for example, over a wide range of ages.

Suggested Citation

  • Shaun R. Seaman & Pantelis Samartsidis & Meaghan Kall & Daniela De Angelis, 2022. "Nowcasting COVID‐19 deaths in England by age and region," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1266-1281, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:71:y:2022:i:5:p:1266-1281
    DOI: 10.1111/rssc.12576
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    References listed on IDEAS

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