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Parameter estimation for partially observed hypoelliptic diffusions

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  • Yvo Pokern
  • Andrew M. Stuart
  • Petter Wiberg

Abstract

Summary. Hypoelliptic diffusion processes can be used to model a variety of phenomena in applications ranging from molecular dynamics to audio signal analysis. We study parameter estimation for such processes in situations where we observe some components of the solution at discrete times. Since exact likelihoods for the transition densities are typically not known, approximations are used that are expected to work well in the limit of small intersample times Δt and large total observation times N Δt. Hypoellipticity together with partial observation leads to ill conditioning requiring a judicious combination of approximate likelihoods for the various parameters to be estimated. We combine these in a deterministic scan Gibbs sampler alternating between missing data in the unobserved solution components, and parameters. Numerical experiments illustrate asymptotic consistency of the method when applied to simulated data. The paper concludes with an application of the Gibbs sampler to molecular dynamics data.

Suggested Citation

  • Yvo Pokern & Andrew M. Stuart & Petter Wiberg, 2009. "Parameter estimation for partially observed hypoelliptic diffusions," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(1), pages 49-73, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssb:v:71:y:2009:i:1:p:49-73
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9868.2008.00689.x
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    1. Isao Shoji & Tohru Ozaki, 1997. "Comparative study of estimation methods for continuous time stochastic processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(5), pages 485-506, September.
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    3. Alexandros Beskos & Omiros Papaspiliopoulos & Gareth O. Roberts & Paul Fearnhead, 2006. "Exact and computationally efficient likelihood‐based estimation for discretely observed diffusion processes (with discussion)," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(3), pages 333-382, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Iguchi, Yuga & Beskos, Alexandros & Graham, Matthew M., 2024. "Parameter inference for degenerate diffusion processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    2. Comte, Fabienne & Prieur, Clémentine & Samson, Adeline, 2017. "Adaptive estimation for stochastic damping Hamiltonian systems under partial observation," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 127(11), pages 3689-3718.
    3. Shoji, Isao, 2013. "Filtering for partially observed diffusion and its applications," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(20), pages 4966-4976.
    4. Vialard, François-Xavier, 2013. "Extension to infinite dimensions of a stochastic second-order model associated with shape splines," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 123(6), pages 2110-2157.
    5. Susanne Ditlevsen & Adeline Samson, 2019. "Hypoelliptic diffusions: filtering and inference from complete and partial observations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 81(2), pages 361-384, April.
    6. Samson, Adeline & Thieullen, Michèle, 2012. "A contrast estimator for completely or partially observed hypoelliptic diffusion," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 122(7), pages 2521-2552.
    7. Hermann Singer, 2011. "Continuous-discrete state-space modeling of panel data with nonlinear filter algorithms," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 95(4), pages 375-413, December.
    8. Dureau, Joseph & Kalogeropoulos, Konstantinos & Baguelin, Marc, 2013. "Capturing the time-varying drivers of an epidemic using stochastic dynamical systems," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 41749, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Cattiaux, Patrick & León, José R. & Prieur, Clémentine, 2014. "Estimation for stochastic damping hamiltonian systems under partial observation—I. Invariant density," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 1236-1260.
    10. Quentin Clairon & Adeline Samson, 2022. "Optimal control for parameter estimation in partially observed hypoelliptic stochastic differential equations," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 37(5), pages 2471-2491, November.
    11. Quentin Clairon & Adeline Samson, 2020. "Optimal control for estimation in partially observed elliptic and hypoelliptic linear stochastic differential equations," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 105-127, April.

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