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Multilevel multivariate modelling of legislative count data, with a hidden Markov chain

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  • Francesco Lagona
  • Antonello Maruotti
  • Fabio Padovano

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="rssa12089-abs-0001"> The production of legislative acts is affected by multiple sources of latent heterogeneity, due to multilevel and multivariate unobserved factors that operate in conjunction with observed covariates at all the levels of the data hierarchy. We account for these factors by estimating a multilevel Poisson regression model for repeated measurements of bivariate counts of executive and ordinary legislative acts, enacted under multiple Italian governments, nested within legislatures. The model integrates discrete bivariate random effects at the legislature level and Markovian sequences of discrete bivariate random effects at the government level. It can be estimated by a computationally feasible expectation–maximization algorithm. It naturally extends a traditional Poisson regression model to allow for multiple outcomes, longitudinal dependence and multilevel data hierarchy. The model is exploited to detect multiple cycles of legislative supply that arise at multiple timescales in a case-study of Italian legislative production.

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  • Francesco Lagona & Antonello Maruotti & Fabio Padovano, 2015. "Multilevel multivariate modelling of legislative count data, with a hidden Markov chain," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(3), pages 705-723, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:178:y:2015:i:3:p:705-723
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Dotto & Alessio Farcomeni & Maria Grazia Pittau & Roberto Zelli, 2019. "A dynamic inhomogeneous latent state model for measuring material deprivation," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 182(2), pages 495-516, February.
    2. Fabio Padovano & Youssoufa Sy, 2023. "Conditional Political legislation cycles," Economics Working Paper from Condorcet Center for political Economy at CREM-CNRS 2023-02-ccr, Condorcet Center for political Economy.
    3. Timo Adam & Roland Langrock & Christian H. Weiß, 2019. "Penalized estimation of flexible hidden Markov models for time series of counts," METRON, Springer;Sapienza Università di Roma, vol. 77(2), pages 87-104, August.
    4. Maruotti, Antonello & Punzo, Antonio, 2017. "Model-based time-varying clustering of multivariate longitudinal data with covariates and outliers," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 475-496.
    5. Maruotti, Antonello & Petrella, Lea & Sposito, Luca, 2021. "Hidden semi-Markov-switching quantile regression for time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    6. François Facchini & Elena Seghezza, 2021. "Legislative production and public spending in France," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 189(1), pages 71-91, October.
    7. Lagona, Francesco & Padovano, Fabio, 2021. "How does legislative behavior change when the country becomes democratic? The case of South Korea," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    8. Antonello Maruotti & Pierfrancesco Alaimo Di Loro, 2023. "CO2 emissions and growth: A bivariate bidimensional mean‐variance random effects model," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), August.
    9. Antonello Maruotti & Antonio Punzo, 2021. "Initialization of Hidden Markov and Semi‐Markov Models: A Critical Evaluation of Several Strategies," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 89(3), pages 447-480, December.
    10. W. H. Bonat & J. Olivero & M. Grande-Vega & M. A. Farfán & J. E. Fa, 2017. "Modelling the Covariance Structure in Marginal Multivariate Count Models: Hunting in Bioko Island," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 22(4), pages 446-464, December.

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