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A joint latent class changepoint model to improve the prediction of time to graft failure

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  • Francisca Galindo Garre
  • Aeilko H. Zwinderman
  • Ronald B. Geskus
  • Yvo W. J. Sijpkens

Abstract

Summary. The reciprocal of serum creatinine concentration, RC, is often used as a biomarker to monitor renal function. It has been observed that RC trajectories remain relatively stable after transplantation until a certain moment, when an irreversible decrease in the RC levels occurs. This decreasing trend commonly precedes failure of a graft. Two subsets of individuals can be distinguished according to their RC trajectories: a subset of individuals having stable RC levels and a subset of individuals who present an irrevocable decrease in their RC levels. To describe such data, the paper proposes a joint latent class model for longitudinal and survival data with two latent classes. RC trajectories within latent class one are modelled by an intercept‐only random‐effects model and RC trajectories within latent class two are modelled by a segmented random changepoint model. A Bayesian approach is used to fit this joint model to data from patients who had their first kidney transplantation in the Leiden University Medical Center between 1983 and 2002. The resulting model describes the kidney transplantation data very well and provides better predictions of the time to failure than other joint and survival models.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisca Galindo Garre & Aeilko H. Zwinderman & Ronald B. Geskus & Yvo W. J. Sijpkens, 2008. "A joint latent class changepoint model to improve the prediction of time to graft failure," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(1), pages 299-308, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:171:y:2008:i:1:p:299-308
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2007.00514.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Getachew A. Dagne, 2021. "Bayesian Quantile Bent-Cable Growth Models for Longitudinal Data with Skewness and Detection Limit," Statistics in Biosciences, Springer;International Chinese Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 129-141, April.
    2. Jaeun Choi & Donglin Zeng & Andrew F. Olshan & Jianwen Cai, 2018. "Joint modeling of survival time and longitudinal outcomes with flexible random effects," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 126-152, January.
    3. Liu, Yue & Liu, Lei & Zhou, Jianhui, 2015. "Joint latent class model of survival and longitudinal data: An application to CPCRA study," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 40-50.
    4. Bartolucci, Al & Bae, Sejong & Singh, Karan & Griffith, H. Randall, 2009. "An examination of Bayesian statistical approaches to modeling change in cognitive decline in an Alzheimer's disease population," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 561-571.
    5. Dimitris Rizopoulos, 2011. "Dynamic Predictions and Prospective Accuracy in Joint Models for Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 67(3), pages 819-829, September.
    6. Eleni†Rosalina Andrinopoulou & Paul H. C. Eilers & Johanna J. M. Takkenberg & Dimitris Rizopoulos, 2018. "Improved dynamic predictions from joint models of longitudinal and survival data with time†varying effects using P†splines," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 74(2), pages 685-693, June.
    7. Xavier Piulachs & Ramon Alemany & Montserrat Guillen, 2014. "A joint longitudinal and survival model with health care usage for insured elderly," Working Papers 2014-07, Universitat de Barcelona, UB Riskcenter.

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