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Measuring Mutual Fund Flow Pressure as Shock to Stock Returns

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  • MALCOLM WARDLAW

Abstract

A large and rapidly growing literature examines the impact of misvaluation on firm policies by using mutual fund outflow‐induced price pressure to isolate nonfundamental price variation. I demonstrate that the standard approach to computing outflow‐induced price pressure produces a measure that is inadvertently a direct function of a stock's actual realized return during the outflow quarter, raising doubts about its orthogonality to fundamentals. After removing these direct measurements of return, outflows generate a fairly negligible quarterly decline in returns, with no subsequent reversal, and many established results in this literature no longer hold. I provide suggestions for future analysis.

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  • Malcolm Wardlaw, 2020. "Measuring Mutual Fund Flow Pressure as Shock to Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 3221-3243, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:75:y:2020:i:6:p:3221-3243
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12962
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    4. Liu, Xiaotong & Wang, Jingda & Cao, Chang, 2024. "Mutual fund cliques, fund flow-performance sensitivity, and stock price crash risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
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    6. Albuquerque, Rui & Costa, José & Faias, Jose, 2022. "Price elasticity of demand and risk-bearing capacity in sovereign bond auctions," CEPR Discussion Papers 17095, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Doron Israeli & Ron Kaniel & Suhas A. Sridharan, 2022. "The Real Side of the High-Volume Return Premium," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 1426-1449, February.
    8. Jiang, Jinglin & Nanda, Vikram & Xiao, Steven Chong, 2021. "Stock-market disruptions and corporate disclosure policies," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    9. Amil Dasgupta & Vyacheslav Fos & Zacharias Sautner, 2021. "Institutional Investors and Corporate Governance," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 12(4), pages 276-394, September.
    10. Dasgupta, Amil & Fos, Vyacheslav & Sautner, Zacharias, 2021. "Institutional investors and corporate governance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112114, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Bidder, Rhys & Coen, Jamie & Lepore, Caterina & Silvestri, Laura, 2024. "Whose asset sales matter?," Bank of England working papers 1088, Bank of England.
    12. Mariassunta Giannetti & Chotibhak Jotikasthira, 2024. "Bond Price Fragility and the Structure of the Mutual Fund Industry," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 37(7), pages 2063-2109.
    13. Gong, Ning & Tao, Qizhi & Zhang, Wan, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty, political connections, and M&As: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    14. Broman, Markus S., 2020. "Local demand shocks, excess comovement and return predictability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).

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