IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pacfin/v85y2024ics0927538x24000817.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic policy uncertainty, political connections, and M&As: Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Gong, Ning
  • Tao, Qizhi
  • Zhang, Wan

Abstract

We find that political connections can help firms mitigate the negative impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on the frequency and dollar value of acquisitions in a sample of Chinese firms from 2007 to 2019. The effect is stronger for firms with higher EPU sensitivity, with higher leverage, and in heavily regulated energy and agricultural sectors. The impact of political connections appears to be based on the information advantage and not on the financing channel. A government anti-corruption rule introduced in 2013 prohibiting current and former officials from working for enterprises is used as an exogenous shock to political connections to mitigate endogeneity concerns. The prohibition appears to reduce acquisition activities when EPU is high.

Suggested Citation

  • Gong, Ning & Tao, Qizhi & Zhang, Wan, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty, political connections, and M&As: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:85:y:2024:i:c:s0927538x24000817
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102330
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X24000817
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102330?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Yun & Luk, Paul, 2020. "Measuring economic policy uncertainty in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    2. Piotroski, Joseph D. & Zhang, Tianyu, 2014. "Politicians and the IPO decision: The impact of impending political promotions on IPO activity in China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 111-136.
    3. Rao, Sandeep & Koirala, Santosh & Aldhawyan, Sulaiman & Corbet, Shaen, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and M&A: The role of national governance institutions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    4. Nguyen, Nam H. & Phan, Hieu V., 2017. "Policy Uncertainty and Mergers and Acquisitions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 613-644, April.
    5. Chen, Yunsen & Xie, Yuan & You, Hong & Zhang, Yanan, 2018. "Does crackdown on corruption reduce stock price crash risk? Evidence from China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 125-141.
    6. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    7. Wang, Xiong & Li, Jingyao & Ren, Xiaohang & Bu, Ruijun & Jawadi, Fredj, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and dynamic correlations in energy markets: Assessment and solutions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    8. Chang, Yuyuan & Pan, Xiaofei & Wang, Jianling & Zhou, Qing, 2021. "Depoliticization and corporate cash holdings: Evidence from the mandated resignation of directors in China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    9. Stephen P. Ferris & Reza Houston & David Javakhadze, 2016. "Friends in the Right Places: The Effect of Political Connections on Corporate Merger Activity," NFI Working Papers 2016-WP-01, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    10. Sun, Ting-Ting & Su, Chi-Wei & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "How does trade policy uncertainty affect agriculture commodity prices?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    11. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    12. Mariassunta Giannetti & Guanmin Liao & Jiaxing You & Xiaoyun Yu, 2021. "The Externalities of Corruption: Evidence from Entrepreneurial Firms in China," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(3), pages 629-667.
    13. Huiming Zhu & Rui Huang & Ningli Wang & Liya Hau, 2020. "Does economic policy uncertainty matter for commodity market in China? Evidence from quantile regression," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(21), pages 2292-2308, May.
    14. Jonathan Brogaard & Andrew Detzel, 2015. "The Asset-Pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(1), pages 3-18, January.
    15. Zhang, Eden Quxian, 2022. "Why are distressed firms acquisitive?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    16. Wei, Chunyan & Hu, Shiyang & Chen, Feng, 2020. "Do political connection disruptions increase labor costs in a government-dominated market? Evidence from publicly listed companies in China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    17. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    18. Huang, Chia-Wei & Lin, Chih-Yen & Lin, Wen-Chun & Tsai, Yun-Ching, 2022. "Corruption transfer and acquisition performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    19. Hong Ru, 2018. "Government Credit, a Double†Edged Sword: Evidence from the China Development Bank," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 275-316, February.
    20. Yan-Leung Cheung & P. Raghavendra Rau & Aris Stouraitis, 2010. "Helping Hand or Grabbing Hand? Central vs. Local Government Shareholders in Chinese Listed Firms," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(4), pages 669-694.
    21. Mara Faccio, 2006. "Politically Connected Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 369-386, March.
    22. Zhu, PengCheng & Jog, Vijay & Otchere, Isaac, 2014. "Idiosyncratic volatility and mergers and acquisitions in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 18-48.
    23. Schweizer, Denis & Walker, Thomas & Zhang, Aoran, 2019. "Cross-border acquisitions by Chinese enterprises: The benefits and disadvantages of political connections," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 63-85.
    24. Alex Edmans & Itay Goldstein & Wei Jiang, 2012. "The Real Effects of Financial Markets: The Impact of Prices on Takeovers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(3), pages 933-971, June.
    25. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    26. Liu, Guanchun & Hu, May & Cheng, Chen, 2021. "The information transfer effects of political connections on mitigating policy uncertainty: Evidence from China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    27. Zhong, Angel, 2018. "Idiosyncratic volatility in the Australian equity market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-125.
    28. Malcolm Wardlaw, 2020. "Measuring Mutual Fund Flow Pressure as Shock to Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 3221-3243, December.
    29. Xu, Yongxin, 2018. "Anticorruption regulation and firm value: Evidence from a shock of mandated resignation of directors in China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 67-80.
    30. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Tran, Vuong Thao, 2018. "Can economic policy uncertainty predict stock returns? Global evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 134-150.
    31. Ferris, Stephen P. & Houston, Reza & Javakhadze, David, 2016. "Friends in the right places: The effect of political connections on corporate merger activity," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 81-102.
    32. Olivier Dessaint & Jacques Olivier & Clemens A Otto & David Thesmar & Itay Goldstein, 2021. "CAPM-Based Company (Mis)valuations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 1-66.
    33. Kenneth M. Lehn & Mengxin Zhao, 2006. "CEO Turnover after Acquisitions: Are Bad Bidders Fired?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1759-1811, August.
    34. López-Iturriaga, Félix J. & Santana Martín, Domingo Javier, 2019. "The payout policy of politically connected firms: Tunnelling or reputation?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    35. Olivier Dessaint & Jacques Olivier & Clemens A Otto & David Thesmar, 2021. "CAPM-Based Company (Mis)valuations [Credit lines as monitored liquidity insurance: Theory and evidence]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(1), pages 1-66.
    36. Philip Bond & Alex Edmans & Itay Goldstein, 2012. "The Real Effects of Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 339-360, October.
    37. Raymond Fisman, 2001. "Estimating the Value of Political Connections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1095-1102, September.
    38. Nejadmalayeri, Ali & Rosenblum, Aaron, 2022. "Distressed acquirers and the bright side of financial distress," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    39. Laura A. Wellman, 2017. "Mitigating political uncertainty," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 217-250, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yin, Doudou & Si, Deng-Kui & Wang, Yun, 2024. "How does corporate investment respond to trade policy uncertainty in China? The role of political connections," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1429-1445.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hanming Fang & Zhe Li & Nianhang Xu & Hongjun Yan, 2023. "Firms and Local Governments: Relationship Building during Political Turnovers," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 739-762.
    2. Yuping Deng & Yanrui Wu & Helian Xu, 2020. "Political Connections and Firm Pollution Behaviour: An Empirical Study," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 75(4), pages 867-898, April.
    3. Shen, Xieyang & Yang, Sijie & Chen, Yulin & Zeng, Jianyu, 2022. "How does economic policy uncertainty influence managers' learning from peers' stock prices? Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Vincent Tawiah & Abdulrasheed Zakari & Yan Wang, 2022. "Partisan political connections, ethnic tribalism, and firm performance," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1331-1362, May.
    5. Chen, Shuo & Yan, Xun & Yang, Bo, 2020. "Move to success? Headquarters relocation, political favoritism, and corporate performance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Wei, Chunyan & Hu, Shiyang & Chen, Feng, 2020. "Do political connection disruptions increase labor costs in a government-dominated market? Evidence from publicly listed companies in China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Cheng, Lei, 2022. "Political capital and physical capital: Substitute or complement? Evidence from China's anti-corruption campaign," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PB).
    8. Itay Goldstein, 2023. "Information in Financial Markets and Its Real Effects," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 1-32.
    9. Croci, Ettore & Pantzalis, Christos & Park, Jung Chul & Petmezas, Dimitris, 2017. "The role of corporate political strategies in M&As," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 260-287.
    10. Jackowicz, Krzysztof & Kozłowski, Łukasz & Podgórski, Błażej & Winkler-Drews, Tadeusz, 2020. "Do political connections shield from negative shocks? Evidence from rating changes in advanced emerging economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    11. Tee, Chwee-Ming & Hooy, Chee-Wooi, 2023. "Political connections and economic policy uncertainty: A global evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    12. Hailiang Zou & Ruijing Wang & Guoyou Qi, 2023. "The Response of CSR to Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-19, August.
    13. Xiangyuan Meng & Haoge Guo & Jie Li, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: evidence from China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4491-4529, December.
    14. Ferguson, Andrew & Hu, Wei & Lam, Peter, 2022. "Political uncertainty and deal structure: Evidence from Australian mining project acquisitions," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    15. Xiao, Jihong & Jiang, Jiajie & Zhang, Yaojie, 2024. "Policy uncertainty, investor sentiment, and good and bad volatilities in the stock market: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    16. Dang, Man & Puwanenthiren, Premkanth & Thai, Hong An & Mazur, Mieszko & Jones, Edward & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Policy uncertainty and seasoned equity offerings methods," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    17. Drobetz, Wolfgang & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Janzen, Malte, 2018. "Policy uncertainty, investment, and the cost of capital," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-45.
    18. Peng, Daoju & Colak, Gonul & Shen, Jianfu, 2023. "Lean against the wind: The effect of policy uncertainty on a firm's corporate social responsibility strategy," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    19. Si, Deng-Kui & Zhuang, Jiali & Ge, Xinyu & Yu, Yong, 2024. "The nexus between trade policy uncertainty and corporate financialization: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    20. Liu, Guanchun & Hu, May & Cheng, Chen, 2021. "The information transfer effects of political connections on mitigating policy uncertainty: Evidence from China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political connections; Economic policy uncertainty; M&As; Anti-corruption campaign;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:85:y:2024:i:c:s0927538x24000817. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.