IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ptu/wpaper/w202302.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Price elasticity of demand and risk-bearing capacity in sovereign bond auctions

Author

Listed:
  • José Miguel Cardoso da Costa
  • Rui Albuquerque

Abstract

The paper uses bids submitted by primary dealer banks at auctions of sovereign bonds to quantify the price elasticity of demand. The price elasticity of demand correlates strongly with the volatility of returns of the same bonds traded in the secondary market but only weakly with their bid-ask spread. The price elasticity of demand predicts same-bond post-auction returns in the secondary market, even after controlling for pre-auction volatility. The evidence suggests that the price elasticity of demand is associated with the magnitude of price pressure in the secondary market around auction days, and proxies for primary dealer risk-bearing capacity.

Suggested Citation

  • José Miguel Cardoso da Costa & Rui Albuquerque, 2023. "Price elasticity of demand and risk-bearing capacity in sovereign bond auctions," Working Papers w202302, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202302
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/anexos/papers/wp202302.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1901-1930 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Dong Lou & Hongjun Yan & Jinfan Zhang, 2013. "Anticipated and Repeated Shocks in Liquid Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(8), pages 1891-1912.
    3. Ali Hortaçsu & Jakub Kastl & Allen Zhang, 2018. "Bid Shading and Bidder Surplus in the US Treasury Auction System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(1), pages 147-169, January.
    4. Christine A. Parlour & Uday Rajan, 2005. "Rationing in IPOs," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 9(1), pages 33-63.
    5. Erkko Etula, 2013. "Broker-Dealer Risk Appetite and Commodity Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 486-521, June.
    6. Malcolm Wardlaw, 2020. "Measuring Mutual Fund Flow Pressure as Shock to Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 3221-3243, December.
    7. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & de Jong, Frank & Widijanto, Daniel, 2016. "Price effects of sovereign debt auctions in the euro-zone: The role of the crisis," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 30-53.
    8. Christine Parlour & Uday Rajan, 2005. "Rationing in IPOs," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 33-63, March.
    9. Jeffrey Wurgler & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2002. "Does Arbitrage Flatten Demand Curves for Stocks?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 583-608, October.
    10. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2002_016 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Jason Allen & Jakub Kastl & Milena Wittwer, 2020. "Maturity Composition and the Demand for Government Debt," Staff Working Papers 20-29, Bank of Canada.
    12. Frazzini, Andrea & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2014. "Betting against beta," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 1-25.
    13. He, Zhiguo & Kelly, Bryan & Manela, Asaf, 2017. "Intermediary asset pricing: New evidence from many asset classes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 1-35.
    14. Wenxin Du & Alexander Tepper & Adrien Verdelhan, 2018. "Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 915-957, June.
    15. Albert S. Kyle, 1989. "Informed Speculation with Imperfect Competition," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 56(3), pages 317-355.
    16. Dong Lou, 2012. "A Flow-Based Explanation for Return Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3457-3489.
    17. Harris, Lawrence E & Gurel, Eitan, 1986. "Price and Volume Effects Associated with Changes in the S&P 500 List: New Evidence for the Existence of Price Pressures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 815-829, September.
    18. Matti Keloharju & Kjell G. Nyborg & Kristian Rydqvist, 2005. "Strategic Behavior and Underpricing in Uniform Price Auctions: Evidence from Finnish Treasury Auctions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1865-1902, August.
    19. Keloharju, Matti & Malkamäki, Markku & Nyborg, Kjell G. & Rydqvist, Kristian, 2002. "A Descriptive analysis of the Finnish treasury bond market 1991-1999," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/2002, Bank of Finland.
    20. Goldstein, Michael A. & Hotchkiss, Edith S., 2020. "Providing liquidity in an illiquid market: Dealer behavior in US corporate bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 16-40.
    21. Darrell Duffie, 2013. "Replumbing Our Financial System: Uneven Progress," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 251-280, January.
    22. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:5:p:1623-1656 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Ali Hortaçsu & Jakub Kastl, 2012. "Valuing Dealers' Informational Advantage: A Study of Canadian Treasury Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2511-2542, November.
    24. Kandel, Shmuel & Sarig, Oded & Wohl, Avi, 1999. "The Demand for Stocks: An Analysis of IPO Auctions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 227-247.
    25. Goldberg, Jonathan, 2020. "Liquidity supply by broker-dealers and real activity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 806-827.
    26. Jason Allen & Ali Hortaçsu & Jakub Kastl, 2021. "Crisis Management in Canada: Analyzing Default Risk and Liquidity Demand during Financial Stress," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 243-275, May.
    27. Aditya Kaul & Vikas Mehrotra & Randall Morck, 2000. "Demand Curves for Stocks Do Slope Down: New Evidence from an Index Weights Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 893-912, April.
    28. Gabaix, Xavier & Koijen, Ralph, 2021. "In Search of the Origins of Financial Fluctuations: The Inelastic Markets Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 16290, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    29. Vasicek, Oldrich A, 1973. "A Note on Using Cross-Sectional Information in Bayesian Estimation of Security Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(5), pages 1233-1239, December.
    30. Albuquerque, Rui & Song, Shiyun & Yao, Chen, 2020. "The price effects of liquidity shocks: A study of the SEC’s tick size experiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 700-724.
    31. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Hanson, Jesper & de Jong, Frank, 2018. "Bid-to-cover and yield changes around public debt auctions in the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 118-134.
    32. Bagwell, Laurie Simon, 1992. "Dutch Auction Repurchases: An Analysis of Shareholder Heterogeneity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 71-105, March.
    33. Kjell G. Nyborg & Kristian Rydqvist & Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2002. "Bidder Behavior in Multiunit Auctions: Evidence from Swedish Treasury Auctions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 394-424, April.
    34. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. "Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-590, July.
    35. Terrence Hendershott & Albert J Menkveld & Rémy Praz & Mark Seasholes, 2022. "Asset Price Dynamics with Limited Attention," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(2), pages 962-1008.
    36. Darrell Duffie, 2010. "Presidential Address: Asset Price Dynamics with Slow‐Moving Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1237-1267, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Atanasov, Vladimir & Merrick, John, 2011. "Financial asset demand is elastic: Evidence from new issues of Federal Home Loan Bank debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3225-3239.
    2. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Hanson, Jesper & de Jong, Frank, 2020. "Determinants of the bid-to-cover ratio in Eurozone sovereign debt auctions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 96-120.
    3. Sigaux, Jean-David, 2024. "Trading ahead of treasury auctions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    4. Jonathan Goldberg & Yoshio Nozawa, 2021. "Liquidity Supply in the Corporate Bond Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(2), pages 755-796, April.
    5. Dekker, Lennart, 2024. "Essays on asset liquidity and investment funds," Other publications TiSEM 5fc9bf77-84e7-4a36-9e3a-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Robin Greenwood & Toomas Laarits & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2022. "Stock Market Stimulus," NBER Working Papers 29827, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Baker, Malcolm & Coval, Joshua & Stein, Jeremy C., 2007. "Corporate financing decisions when investors take the path of least resistance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 266-298, May.
    8. Song, Zhaogang & Zhu, Haoxiang, 2018. "Quantitative easing auctions of Treasury bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 103-124.
    9. Jung-Wook Kim & Jason Lee & Randall Morck, 2009. "Characteristics of Observed Limit Order Demand and Supply Schedules for Individual Stocks," NBER Working Papers 14733, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Schnitzler, Jan, 2018. "S&P 500 inclusions and stock supply," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 341-356.
    11. Jeffrey Wurgler & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2002. "Does Arbitrage Flatten Demand Curves for Stocks?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 583-608, October.
    12. Klingler, Sven & Sundaresan, Suresh, 2023. "Diminishing treasury convenience premiums: Effects of dealers’ excess demand and balance sheet constraints," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 55-69.
    13. Liu, Clark & Wang, Shujing & Wei, K.C. John & Zhong, Ninghua, 2019. "The demand effect of yield-chasing retail investors: Evidence from the Chinese enterprise bond market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 57-77.
    14. Martin Dierker & Jung-Wook Kim & Jason Lee & Randall Morck, 2016. "Investors’ Interacting Demand and Supply Curves for Common Stocks," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1517-1547.
    15. Jason Allen & Milena Wittwer, 2023. "Intermediary Market Power and Capital Constraints," Staff Working Papers 23-51, Bank of Canada.
    16. Shida, Jakob, 2023. "Primary market demand for German government bonds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    17. Fernandes, Marcelo & Mergulhão, João, 2016. "Anticipatory effects in the FTSE 100 index revisions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 79-90.
    18. Martin, Philippe & Rey, Helene, 2004. "Financial super-markets: size matters for asset trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 335-361, December.
    19. Dong Lou & Hongjun Yan & Jinfan Zhang, 2013. "Anticipated and Repeated Shocks in Liquid Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(8), pages 1891-1912.
    20. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2005. "Comovement," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 283-317, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202302. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: DEE-NTD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdpgvpt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.