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Uncovering expected returns: Information in analyst coverage proxies

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  • Lee, Charles M.C.
  • So, Eric C.

Abstract

We show that analyst coverage proxies contain information about expected returns. We decompose analyst coverage into abnormal and expected components using a simple characteristic-based model and show that firms with abnormally high analyst coverage subsequently outperform firms with abnormally low coverage by approximately 80 basis points per month. We also show abnormal coverage rises following exogenous shocks to underpricing and predicts improvements in firms’ fundamental performance, suggesting that return predictability stems from analysts more heavily covering underpriced stocks. Our findings highlight the usefulness of analysts’ actions in expected return estimations, and a potential inference problem when coverage proxies are used to study information asymmetry and dissemination.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Charles M.C. & So, Eric C., 2017. "Uncovering expected returns: Information in analyst coverage proxies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 331-348.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:124:y:2017:i:2:p:331-348
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2017.01.007
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Analysts; Expected returns; Anomalies; Coverage; Measurement error; Return predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • M40 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - General
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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