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Would African Countries Benefit from the Termination of Kenya’s Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the EU? An Analysis of EU Demand for Imported Roses

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  • Andrew Muhammad

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of Kenya’s preferential status on EU demand for imported roses by country. Import demand equations were estimated using a production version of the Rotterdam model in an Armington framework. With the expiration of the Lomé Convention, tariffs (up to 24%) on Kenyan roses were likely if an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) was not signed by January 2008. Roses from African countries not subject to tariffs were expected to displace Kenya’s exports in the future. However, results of this study showed that roses from African countries were complements in the EU market and those exports from Zimbabwe and Other African countries would have been negatively impacted if a Kenya–EU EPA was unsuccessful. Given the maximum import duty on Kenyan roses, EU imports from Kenya would decrease by 9.1% and imports from Zimbabwe and Other African countries would decrease by 6% and 4%, respectively.

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  • Andrew Muhammad, 2009. "Would African Countries Benefit from the Termination of Kenya’s Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the EU? An Analysis of EU Demand for Imported Roses," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 220-238, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:60:y:2009:i:1:p:220-238
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1477-9552.2008.00169.x
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    9. Andrew Muhammad, 2007. "The impact of increasing non-agricultural market access on EU demand for imported fish: implications for Lake Victoria chilled fillet exports," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 34(4), pages 461-477, December.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Gregory N. Price & Juliet U. Elu, 2014. "Does regional currency integration ameliorate global macroeconomic shocks in sub-Saharan Africa? The case of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 41(5), pages 737-750, September.
    3. Wang, Xiaojin & Reed, Michael, 2014. "Estimation of U.S. Demand for Imported Shrimp by Country: A Two-stage Differential Production Approach," 2014 Annual Meeting, February 1-4, 2014, Dallas, Texas 162459, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    4. Juliet Elu & Gregory Price, 2013. "Ethnicity as a Barrier to Childhood and Adolescent Health Capital in Tanzania: Evidence from the Wage-Height Relationship," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 1-13.
    5. Muhammad, Andrew & Ngeleza, Guyslain K., 2009. "The role of the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) in determining carnation demand in the United Kingdom: implications for Colombian and Kenyan exports," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 48(3), pages 1-16, September.
    6. Elu Juliet U. & Price Gregory N., 2012. "Remittances and the Financing of Terrorism In Sub-Saharan Africa: 1974 - 2006," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-42, July.
    7. Oh, Juhyun & Suh, Dong Hee, 2024. "Exploring the import allocation of wood pellets: Insights from price and policy influences under the renewable portfolio standard," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    8. Oulu, Martin, 2015. "The unequal exchange of Dutch cheese and Kenyan roses: Introducing and testing an LCA-based methodology for estimating ecologically unequal exchange," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 372-383.
    9. Muhammad, Andrew & McPhail, Lihong Lu & Kiawu, James, 2012. "Do U.S. Cotton Subsidies Affect Competing Exporters? An Analysis of Import Demand in China," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(2), pages 1-15, May.
    10. Steen, Marie, 2014. "Measuring Price–Quantity Relationships in the Dutch Flower Market," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 46(2), pages 1-10, May.

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