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Undocumented Migration to the United States and the Wages of Mexican Immigrants

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  • Douglas S. Massey
  • Kerstin Gentsch

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="imre12065-abs-0001"> Prior work has documented the remarkable decline in the real wages of Mexican immigrant workers in the U.S. over the past several decades. Although some of this trend might be attributable to the changing characteristics of the migrants themselves, we argue that a more important change was the circumstances under within Mexican immigrants competed for jobs in the U.S. After 1986 a growing share of Mexican immigrants was undocumented, discrimination against them was mandated by federal law, and enforcement efforts rose in intensity. We combined data from the Mexican Migration Project (MMP) with independent estimates of the percentage undocumented among Mexicans living in the U.S. to estimate a series of regression models to test this hypothesis. Controlling for individual characteristics helps to explain the decline in the wages of immigrants, but does not eliminate the trend, which is only explained fully when the percentage undocumented is added to the model. A key date is 1986, confirmed by a Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition analysis, when undocumented hiring was criminalized and undocumented migration revived after IRCA's legalization programs ended. As the percentage undocumented rose to new heights in the face of employer sanctions, immigrant wages fell below what we would have observed under the former policy regime. Using newly available data from Warren and Warren (2013), we examined how variation in the percentage undocumented by state and year from 1990 through 2009 affected immigrant wages and confirmed a strong negative effect, but the addition of an interaction term to the model indicated that the negative effect was confined largely to undocumented migrants, whose wage penalty rose from 8 to 18 percent as the percentage undocumented rose from its observed minimum to maximum.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas S. Massey & Kerstin Gentsch, 2014. "Undocumented Migration to the United States and the Wages of Mexican Immigrants," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 482-499, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:intmig:v:48:y:2014:i:2:p:482-499
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard C. Jones, 2021. "Has DACA promoted work over schooling and professional advancement for qualifying Mexican Dreamers?," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(6), pages 3007-3019, November.
    2. Rutledge, Zach & Richards, Timothy & Martin, Philip, 2023. "Adverse Effect Wage Rates and US Farm Wages," 2024 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 5-7, 2024, San Antonio, Texas 339074, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Katharine M. Donato & Amanda R. Carrico & Blake Sisk & Bhumika Piya, 2016. "Different but the Same," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 666(1), pages 203-218, July.
    4. Jeehye Kang & Philip N. Cohen & Feinian Chen, 2021. "Latinx Families’ Extended Household Structures and Child Behavioral Problems across Mother’s Immigrant Status in Los Angeles," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 14(1), pages 95-116, February.
    5. Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2016. "The Economics of Temporary Migrations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(1), pages 98-136, March.
    6. BURZYNSKI Michal & GOLA Pawel, 2019. "Mexican Migration to the United States: Selection, Assignment, and Welfare," LISER Working Paper Series 2019-10, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    7. Laurent Bossavie & Çağlar Özden, 2023. "Impacts of Temporary Migration on Development in Origin Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 38(2), pages 249-294.
    8. Kabir, Kayenat & Keeney, Roman, 2017. "Modeling immigration from Mexico to the United States – A structural examination of available information and options for analysis," Conference papers 332850, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Zachariah Rutledge & Pierre Mérel, 2023. "Farm labor supply and fruit and vegetable production," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(2), pages 644-673, March.
    10. Bobby W. Chung, 2024. "Effects of occupational license access on undocumented immigrants evidence from the California reform," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 64-83, June.
    11. Jennifer Scott & Joanna Mhairi Hale & Yolanda C. Padilla, 2021. "Immigration Status and Farmwork: Understanding the Wage and Income Gap Across U.S. Policy and Economic Eras, 1989–2016," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 40(5), pages 861-893, October.
    12. Michael S. Rendall & Susan W. Parker, 2014. "Two Decades of Negative Educational Selectivity of Mexican Migrants to the United States," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(3), pages 421-446, September.
    13. Nancy Plankey-Videla & Cynthia Luz Cisneros Franco, 2022. "“Lots of Time They Don’t Pay”: Understanding Wage-Theft and Resistance in Bryan, Texas through Critical Community-Engaged Research," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-33, February.
    14. Kabir, Kayenat & Keeney, Roman M., 2017. "Modeling undocumented migration from Mexico to the United States – A structural examination of available information and options for analysis," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258376, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Douglas S. Massey & Jorge Durand & Karen A. Pren, 2016. "The Precarious Position of Latino Immigrants in the United States," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 666(1), pages 91-109, July.
    16. Borjas, George J. & Cassidy, Hugh, 2019. "The wage penalty to undocumented immigration," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    17. Jorge Durand & Douglas S. Massey & Karen A. Pren, 2016. "Double Disadvantage," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 666(1), pages 78-90, July.
    18. Hasson, Robert G. & Crea, Thomas M. & Easton, Scott D. & Evans, Kerri & Underwood, Dawnya, 2021. "Clocking in: Employment outcomes for unaccompanied refugee minors leaving foster care in the United States," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    19. Zai Liang & Bo Zhou, 2016. "The Effects of Legal Status on Employment and Health Outcomes among Low-Skilled Chinese Immigrants in New York City," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 666(1), pages 150-163, July.
    20. Douglas S. Massey, 2018. "Finding the Lost Generation: Identifying Second-Generation Immigrants in Federal Statistics," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 677(1), pages 96-104, May.

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