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The Evolution of Local Labor Markets after Recessions

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  • Brad Hershbein
  • Bryan A. Stuart

Abstract

This paper studies how US local labor markets respond to employment losses that occur during recessions. Following recessions from 1973 through 2009, we find areas that lose more jobs during the recession experience persistent relative declines in employment and population. Most importantly, these local labor markets also experience persistent decreases in the employment-population ratio, earnings per capita, and earnings per worker. Our results imply that limited population responses result in longer-lasting consequences for local labor markets than previously thought and that recessions are followed by persistent reallocation of employment across space.

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  • Brad Hershbein & Bryan A. Stuart, 2024. "The Evolution of Local Labor Markets after Recessions," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 399-435, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:16:y:2024:i:3:p:399-435
    DOI: 10.1257/app.20220132
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    2. Katheryn N. Russ & Jay C. Shambaugh & Sanjay R. Singh, 2024. "Currency Areas, Labor Markets, and Regional Cyclical Sensitivity," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 152-195, March.
    3. Hershbein, Brad & Stuart, Bryan A., 2023. "Place-based consequences of person-based transfers: Evidence from recessions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    4. Sarra Ben Yahmed & Francesco Berlingieri & Eduard Brüll, 2024. "Local Labour Market Resilience: The Role of Digitalisation and Working from Home," CESifo Working Paper Series 11114, CESifo.
    5. Pinto, Sérgio & Steinbaum, Marshall, 2023. "The long-run impact of the Great Recession on student debt," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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