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Do Tax Law Changes Influence Ex‐Dividend Stock Price Behavior? Evidence from 1926 to 2005

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  • Jeff Whitworth
  • Ramesh P. Rao

Abstract

We test the Elton and Gruber model of ex‐dividend stock pricing over a period spanning all US tax law changes since 1926. Our results indicate that price drop ratios (ΔP/D) and ex‐day returns are related to dividend and capital gains tax rates in the theorized manner. Consistent with tax clienteles, we also find that ex‐day price movements of higher dividend yield stocks are driven more by corporate tax rates, while lower yield stocks are more influenced by personal rates. Finally, we demonstrate that the positive relationship between ΔP/D and the dividend yield becomes stronger as the tax differential |td− tcg| widens.

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  • Jeff Whitworth & Ramesh P. Rao, 2010. "Do Tax Law Changes Influence Ex‐Dividend Stock Price Behavior? Evidence from 1926 to 2005," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(1), pages 419-445, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finmgt:v:39:y:2010:i:1:p:419-445
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1755-053X.2010.01078.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Ming-Chang Cheng & Ching-Hwa Lee, 2016. "Trading Activities Around Ex-Dividend Days: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Market," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(01), pages 1-17, March.
    2. Kim, Soojung & Park, Soon Hong & Suh, Jungwon, 2018. "A J-shaped cross-sectional relation between dividends and firm value," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 857-877.
    3. Jeff Whitworth & David A. Carter, 2010. "The Ex‐Day Price Behavior of REITs: Taxes or Ticks?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 733-752, Winter.
    4. Efthymiou, Vassilis A. & Episcopos, Athanasios & Leledakis, George N. & Pyrgiotakis, Emmanouil G., 2021. "Intraday analysis of the limit order bias on the ex-dividend day of U.S. common stocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 405-421.
    5. Paudel, Shishir & Silveri, Sabatino (Dino) & Wu, Mark, 2022. "Investor sentiment and asset prices: Evidence from the ex-day," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    6. Bali, Rakesh & Francis, Jack Clark, 2016. "Ex day effects of the 2003 dividend tax cut," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 11-22.
    7. Chen, Hung-Ling & Chow, Edward H. & Shiu, Cheng-Yi, 2013. "Ex-dividend prices and investor trades: Evidence from Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 39-65.
    8. Shishir Paudel & Sabatino (Dino) Silveri & Mark Wu, 2020. "Nasdaq ex‐day behavior: An out‐of‐sample test," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 405-420, April.
    9. Tseng, Yun-lan & Hu, Shing-yang, 2013. "Tax reform and the identity of marginal traders around ex-dividend days," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 181-199.
    10. Keith Jakob & Ryan Whitby, 2017. "The impact of nominal stock price on ex-dividend price responses," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 939-953, May.
    11. Josef García Blandón & M?nica Martínez Blasco & Josef Argiles Bosch, 2011. "Ex-Dividend Day Returns when Dividend and Capital Gains are Taxed at the Same Rate," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(2), pages 140-152, June.
    12. Muñoz, Ercio & Rodriguez, Arturo, 2017. "Ex-dividend date stock behavior and the clientele effect: Evidence around a tax reduction," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 55-61.

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