IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/econpa/v37y2018i1p55-74.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Did Recent Tobacco Reforms Change the Cigarette Market?

Author

Listed:
  • Sinclair Davidson
  • Ashton de Silva

Abstract

The Australian tobacco market is very tightly regulated. Australian governments, like many others, have a long history of enacting various forms of control, including restricting advertising and imposing taxes. Using Australian government data, we investigate the effects of controls on cigarette market characteristics coinciding with Australia's introduction of plain packaging in 2012 (arguably the most innovative form of tobacco control in many years) as well as a subsequent tax increase. Using these data, we find no evidence to suggest that prices and market shares, key market characteristics, changed as a result of plain packaging. Moreover, using a second data set, we find that the introduction of plain packaging had no discernible effect on smoking rates. This finding is not surprising as both domestic and international research shows that government attempts to discourage new consumers, and encourage current consumers to quit, have not been very successful.

Suggested Citation

  • Sinclair Davidson & Ashton de Silva, 2018. "Did Recent Tobacco Reforms Change the Cigarette Market?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 37(1), pages 55-74, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:econpa:v:37:y:2018:i:1:p:55-74
    DOI: 10.1111/1759-3441.12198
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-3441.12198
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1759-3441.12198?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John A. Tauras & Michael F. Pesko & Jidong Huang & Frank J. Chaloupka & Matthew C. Farrelly, 2016. "The Effect of Cigarette Prices on Cigarette Sales: Exploring Heterogeneity in Price Elasticities at High and Low Prices," NBER Working Papers 22251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008. "Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03).
    3. repec:bla:ecorec:v:75:y:1999:i:230:p:225-40 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X., 1996. "Regional cohesion: Evidence and theories of regional growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1325-1352, June.
    5. Zeileis, Achim & Leisch, Friedrich & Hornik, Kurt & Kleiber, Christian, 2002. "strucchange: An R Package for Testing for Structural Change in Linear Regression Models," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 7(i02).
    6. Michael P. Kidd & Sandra Hopkins, 2004. "The Hazards of Starting and Quitting Smoking: Some Australian Evidence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(249), pages 177-192, June.
    7. Zeileis, Achim & Kleiber, Christian & Kramer, Walter & Hornik, Kurt, 2003. "Testing and dating of structural changes in practice," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 109-123, October.
    8. Jonathan Baldry, 1995. "Leviathan And The Price Of Cigarettes: A Comment On Collins And Lapsley," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 14(3), pages 80-85, September.
    9. Harry Clarke & David Prentice, 2012. "Will Plain Packaging Reduce Cigarette Consumption?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 31(3), pages 303-317, September.
    10. Rajeev K. Goel & Michael A. Nelson, 2006. "The Effectiveness of Anti‐Smoking Legislation: A Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 325-355, July.
    11. David Collins & Helen Lapsley, 1996. "Duty-Free Concessions For Alcohol And Tobacco: A Rejoinder To Baldry," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 15(2), pages 93-96, June.
    12. Nelson, Jon P., 2006. "Cigarette advertising regulation: A meta-analysis," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 195-226, June.
    13. David Collins & Helen Lapsley, 1994. "Increasing The Health Risks Of Overseas Travel? Duty-Free Concessions For Alcohol And Tobacco," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 13(4), pages 87-100, December.
    14. Sinclair Davidson & Ashton de Silva, 2014. "The Plain Truth about Plain Packaging: An Econometric Analysis of the Australian 2011 Tobacco Plain Packaging Act," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 21(1), pages 27-44.
    15. Lisa Farrell & Tim R.L. Fry, 2013. "Is Illicit Tobacco Demand Sensitive to Relative Price?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(1), pages 1-9, March.
    16. Terry Alchin, 1992. "Tobacco Taxation In Australia," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 11(3), pages 77-90, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christos Katris & Manolis G. Kavussanos, 2021. "Time series forecasting methods for the Baltic dry index," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1540-1565, December.
    2. Iraj Daizadeh, 2021. "Seasonal and Secular Periodicities Identified in the Dynamics of US FDA Medical Devices (1976 2020) Portends Intrinsic Industrial Transformation and Independence of Certain Crises," Papers 2107.05347, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    3. Iraj Daizadeh, 2020. "Trademark filings and patent application count time series are structurally near-identical and cointegrated: Implications for studies in innovation," Papers 2012.10400, arXiv.org.
    4. Patrik Nosil & Zachariah Gompert & Daniel J. Funk, 2024. "Divergent dynamics of sexual and habitat isolation at the transition between stick insect populations and species," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Zeileis, Achim, 2006. "Implementing a class of structural change tests: An econometric computing approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(11), pages 2987-3008, July.
    6. James Nolan & Zoe Laulederkind, 2022. "Plane to See? Empirical Analysis of the 1999–2006 Air Cargo Cartel," Advances in Airline Economics, in: The International Air Cargo Industry, volume 9, pages 241-262, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    7. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2020. "Multifractal Analysis of Market Efficiency across Structural Breaks: Implications for the Adaptive Market Hypothesis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, October.
    8. João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte & Marta Simões, 2011. "Inequality and Growth in Portugal: a time series analysis," GEMF Working Papers 2011-11, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    9. de Silva, Ashton J & Boymal, Jonathan & Potts, Jason & Thomas, Stuart, 2015. "Does innovation in residential mortgage products explain rising house prices? No," MPRA Paper 62548, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. DIMA, Bogdan & DIMA, Ştefana Maria & IOAN, Roxana, 2021. "Remarks on the behaviour of financial market efficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic. The case of VIX," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    11. Paolo Libenzio Brignoli & Alessandro Varacca & Cornelis Gardebroek & Paolo Sckokai, 2024. "Machine learning to predict grains futures prices," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(3), pages 479-497, May.
    12. Abhijit Sharma & Kelvin G Balcombe & Iain M Fraser, 2009. "Non-renewable resource prices: Structural breaks and long term trends," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 805-819.
    13. Fabio Clementi & Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati, 2015. "Growth and Cycles of the Italian Economy Since 1861: The New Evidence," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 1(1), pages 25-59, March.
    14. Bennett Kleinberg & Isabelle Vegt & Paul Gill, 2021. "The temporal evolution of a far-right forum," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-23, May.
    15. Han Lin Shang & Jiguo Cao & Peijun Sang, 2022. "Stopping time detection of wood panel compression: A functional time‐series approach," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1205-1224, November.
    16. Liu, Guanchun & He, Lei & Yue, Yiding & Wang, Jiying, 2014. "The linkage between insurance activity and banking credit: Some evidence from dynamic analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 239-265.
    17. F. Peters & J. P. Mackenbach & W. J. Nusselder, 2016. "Does the Impact of the Tobacco Epidemic Explain Structural Changes in the Decline of Mortality?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 687-702, December.
    18. Pouliot, Sébastien, 2012. "On the Economics of Adulteration in Food Imports: Application to US Fish and Seafood Imports," Working Papers 148596, Structure and Performance of Agriculture and Agri-products Industry (SPAA).
    19. Tighe, Kara & Piggott, Nicholas & Nicholas, Oscar & Mounter, Stuart & Villano, Renato, 2019. "Testing for pre-committed quantities of Australian meat demand," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 60(2), April.
    20. Fantazzini, Dean & Shangina, Tamara, 2019. "The importance of being informed: forecasting market risk measures for the Russian RTS index future using online data and implied volatility over two decades," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 55, pages 5-31.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:econpa:v:37:y:2018:i:1:p:55-74. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esausea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.