IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/acb/agenda/v21y2014i1p27-44.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Plain Truth about Plain Packaging: An Econometric Analysis of the Australian 2011 Tobacco Plain Packaging Act

Author

Listed:
  • Sinclair Davidson
  • Ashton de Silva

Abstract

From December 2012 standardised packaging for tobacco products - known as 'plain packaging' - has been mandatory in Australia. This paper evaluates the preliminary evidence - in the form of ABS household expenditure on tobacco data - to establish whether the policy has been successful. Despite our econometric efforts, the data refused to yield any indication this policy has been successful; there is no empirical evidence to support the notion that the plain packaging policy has resulted in lower household expenditure on tobacco than there otherwise would have been. There is some faint evidence to suggest, ceteris paribus, household expenditure on tobacco increased.

Suggested Citation

  • Sinclair Davidson & Ashton de Silva, 2014. "The Plain Truth about Plain Packaging: An Econometric Analysis of the Australian 2011 Tobacco Plain Packaging Act," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 21(1), pages 27-44.
    • Handle: RePEc:acb:agenda:v:21:y:2014:i:1:p:27-44
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://press-files.anu.edu.au/downloads/press/p302941/pdf/The-Plain-Truth-about-Plain-Packaging-An-Econometric-Analysis-of-the-Australian-2011-Tobacco-Plain-Packaging-Act.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antony Young, 2014. "1 + 1 = 3," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brand Media Strategy, edition 0, chapter 0, pages 81-99, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. George B. Tawadros, 2009. "Testing the impact of inflation targeting on inflation," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(4), pages 326-342, September.
    3. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B. & Snyder, Ralph D. & Grose, Simone, 2002. "A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 439-454.
    4. Rob Hyndman & Muhammad Akram & Blyth Archibald, 2008. "The admissible parameter space for exponential smoothing models," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 60(2), pages 407-426, June.
    5. Sinclair Davidson & Ashton de Silva, 2013. "Stimulating Savings: An Analysis of Cash Handouts in Australia and the United States," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 20(2), pages 39-60.
    6. Kelvin J. Lancaster, 1966. "A New Approach to Consumer Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(2), pages 132-132.
    7. Lisa Farrell & Tim R.L. Fry, 2013. "Is Illicit Tobacco Demand Sensitive to Relative Price?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(1), pages 1-9, March.
    8. Harvey, Andrew C & Koopman, Siem Jan, 1992. "Diagnostic Checking of Unobserved-Components Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 377-389, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sinclair Davidson & Ashton de Silva, 2018. "Did Recent Tobacco Reforms Change the Cigarette Market?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 37(1), pages 55-74, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alysha M De Livera, 2010. "Automatic forecasting with a modified exponential smoothing state space framework," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/10, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    2. Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008. "Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03).
    3. Corberán-Vallet, Ana & Bermúdez, José D. & Vercher, Enriqueta, 2011. "Forecasting correlated time series with exponential smoothing models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 252-265, April.
    4. George Athanasopoulos & Ashton de Silva, 2010. "Multivariate exponential smoothing for forecasting tourist arrivals to Australia and New Zealand," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/09, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    5. Chai, Jian & Zhang, Zhong-Yu & Wang, Shou-Yang & Lai, Kin Keung & Liu, John, 2014. "Aviation fuel demand development in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 224-235.
    6. Fernández-Amador, Octavio & Francois, Joseph F. & Oberdabernig, Doris A. & Tomberger, Patrick, 2020. "The methane footprint of nations: Stylized facts from a global panel dataset," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    7. Sipos-Gug Sebastian & Badulescu Alina, 2014. "Entrepreneurship In Constructions Sector - Explanatory Economic Factors And Forecasts For Romania," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 379-389, July.
    8. Svetunkov, Ivan & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2015. "Complex Exponential Smoothing," MPRA Paper 69394, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Corberán-Vallet, Ana & Bermúdez, José D. & Vercher, Enriqueta, 2011. "Forecasting correlated time series with exponential smoothing models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 252-265.
    10. Sbrana, Giacomo & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2022. "Random coefficient state-space model: Estimation and performance in M3–M4 competitions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 352-366.
    11. Chinloy, Peter & Jiang, Cheng & John, Kose, 2020. "Investment, depreciation and obsolescence of R&D," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    12. Fernando, Angeline Gautami & Aw, Eugene Cheng-Xi, 2023. "What do consumers want? A methodological framework to identify determinant product attributes from consumers’ online questions," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    13. Pritularga, Kandrika F. & Svetunkov, Ivan & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2023. "Shrinkage estimator for exponential smoothing models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1351-1365.
    14. Graff, Mario & Peña, Rafael & Medina, Aurelio & Escalante, Hugo Jair, 2014. "Wind speed forecasting using a portfolio of forecasters," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 550-559.
    15. Ward, Clement E. & Lusk, Jayson L. & Dutton, Jennifer M., 2008. "Implicit Value of Retail Beef Product Attributes," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(3), pages 1-18.
    16. Reynolds, Travis & Kolodinsky, Jane & Murray, Byron, 2012. "Consumer preferences and willingness to pay for compact fluorescent lighting: Policy implications for energy efficiency promotion in Saint Lucia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 712-722.
    17. Abdullah, Sabah & Mariel, Petr, 2010. "Choice experiment study on the willingness to pay to improve electricity services," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4570-4581, August.
    18. Czajkowski, Mikołaj & Zagórska, Katarzyna & Letki, Natalia & Tryjanowski, Piotr & Wąs, Adam, 2021. "Drivers of farmers’ willingness to adopt extensive farming practices in a globally important bird area," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    19. Canessa, Carolin & Venus, Terese E. & Wiesmeier, Miriam & Mennig, Philipp & Sauer, Johannes, 2023. "Incentives, Rewards or Both in Payments for Ecosystem Services: Drawing a Link Between Farmers' Preferences and Biodiversity Levels," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    20. Rebecca Boehm & Hannah Kitchel & Selena Ahmed & Anaya Hall & Colin M. Orians & John Richard Stepp & Al Robbat, Jr. & Timothy S. Griffin & Sean B. Cash, 2019. "Is Agricultural Emissions Mitigation on the Menu for Tea Drinkers?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-20, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:acb:agenda:v:21:y:2014:i:1:p:27-44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feanuau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.