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Commodity Spot Prices: An Exploratory Assessment of Market Structure and Forward‐Trading Effects

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  • MARGARET E. SLADE
  • HENRY THILLE

Abstract

We assess how characteristics of product and forward markets affect levels and volatilities of commodity spot prices. We examine (i) how product market structure and forward market trading affect spot market games, (ii) the links between product market structure and spot price stability, (iii) whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices, and (iv) how information arrival affects price volatility and the volume of trade. We find that market structure models of the price level but not of price stability receive support, that increased forward trading leads to lower prices, and that the relationship between trading and price instability is indirect via a common causal factor.

Suggested Citation

  • Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 2006. "Commodity Spot Prices: An Exploratory Assessment of Market Structure and Forward‐Trading Effects," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(290), pages 229-256, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:73:y:2006:i:290:p:229-256
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0335.2006.00480.x
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    1. Jean Tirole, 1988. "The Theory of Industrial Organization," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262200716, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Steinmetz, Alexander, 2010. "Price and inventory dynamics in an oligopoly industry: A framework for commodity markets," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 82, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    2. Karali, Berna & Ramirez, Octavio A., 2014. "Macro determinants of volatility and volatility spillover in energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 413-421.
    3. Mitsuru Igami, 2015. "Market Power in International Commodity Trade: The Case of Coffee," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 225-248, June.
    4. Stuermer, Martin, 2018. "150 Years Of Boom And Bust: What Drives Mineral Commodity Prices?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 702-717, April.
    5. Seulki Chung, 2024. "Modelling and Forecasting Energy Market Volatility Using GARCH and Machine Learning Approach," Papers 2405.19849, arXiv.org.
    6. Jan J. J. Groen & Paolo A. Pesenti, 2011. "Commodity Prices, Commodity Currencies, and Global Economic Developments," NBER Chapters, in: Commodity Prices and Markets, pages 15-42, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Manel Antelo & Lluís Bru, 2018. "Option Contracts in a Vertical Industry," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 86(4), pages 533-557, July.
    8. Green, Richard & Le Coq, Chloé, 2010. "The length of contracts and collusion," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 21-29, January.
    9. David P. Brown & Andrew Eckert, 2018. "Analyzing the Impact of Electricity Market Structure Changes and Mergers: The Importance of Forward Commitments," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 52(1), pages 101-137, February.
    10. Pankaj Kumar GUPTA & Sunita RAVI, 2012. "Commodity Market Inefficiencies and Inflationary Pressures - India’s Economic Policy Dilemma," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 31-38.
    11. Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Tharann, Björn & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2021. "Predictability in commodity markets: Evidence from more than a century," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    12. Ye, Wuyi & Guo, Ranran & Deschamps, Bruno & Jiang, Ying & Liu, Xiaoquan, 2021. "Macroeconomic forecasts and commodity futures volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 981-994.
    13. Álvarez-Uribe, Karla C. & Arango-Aramburo, Santiago & Larsen, Erik R., 2018. "Forward contracts in electricity markets and capacity investment: A simulation study," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-10.
    14. Oladunjoye, Olusegun, 2008. "Market structure and price adjustment in the U.S. wholesale gasoline markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 937-961, May.
    15. repec:ddj:fserec:y:2012:p:31-34 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Abhijit Sharma & Kelvin G Balcombe & Iain M Fraser, 2009. "Non-renewable resource prices: Structural breaks and long term trends," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 805-819.
    17. Alexander Steinmetz, 2010. "Price and Inventory Dynamics in an Oligopoly Industry: A Framework for Commodity Markets," Working Papers 092, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    18. Cinquegrana, Piero, 2008. "The Need for Transparency in Commodity and Commodity Derivatives Markets," ECMI Papers 1589, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    19. Joris Pinkse & Margaret Slade & Lihong Shen, 2006. "Dynamic Spatial Discrete Choice Using One-step GMM: An Application to Mine Operating Decisions," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 53-99.

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