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Surprise Me If You Can: The Influence Of Newspaper Endorsements In U.S. Presidential Elections

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  • Agustin Casas
  • Yarine Fawaz
  • Andre Trindade

Abstract

Using the daily trade of futures from the prediction markets site Intrade, we pin down the effect of printed newspapers endorsements (announcement of an explicit support for a political candidate) on the candidates' likelihood of winning. It is established that unexpected endorsements have a large impact on voters' behavior. However, we show that this effect is only true when the endorsement is a coherent one: if a newspaper that praises conservative (liberal) policies endorses a candidate with liberal (conservative) ideas, the endorsement does not impact the candidate's probability of winning, as it is regarded as incoherent. Our measure for coherence comes from Gentzkow and Shapiro (2005), but we also use Ansolabehere and Snyder (2004)'s \propensity to endorse Democrats" to show that a surprise endorsement has a large and potentially tipping effect in a tied contest
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  • Agustin Casas & Yarine Fawaz & Andre Trindade, 2016. "Surprise Me If You Can: The Influence Of Newspaper Endorsements In U.S. Presidential Elections," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(3), pages 1484-1498, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:54:y:2016:i:3:p:1484-1498
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ecin.12317
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    Cited by:

    1. Garz, Marcel & Sood, Gaurav & Stone, Daniel F. & Wallace, Justin, 2020. "The supply of media slant across outlets and demand for slant within outlets: Evidence from US presidential campaign news," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    2. Andina-Díaz, Ascensión & García-Martínez, José A., 2020. "Reputation and news suppression in the media industry," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 240-271.
    3. Balart, Pau & Casas, Agustin & Troumpounis, Orestis, 2022. "Technological change, campaign spending and polarization," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    4. Sprick Schuster, Steven, 2023. "The persuasive power of the fourth estate: Estimating the effect of newspaper endorsements: 1960–1980," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 496-510.

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    JEL classification:

    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making

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