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Can we insure against political uncertainty? Evidence from the U.S. stock market

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  • Andrea Mattozzi

Abstract

We show that existing stocks that are currently traded in the U.S. stock market can be used to hedge political uncertainty. Focusing on the 2000 U.S. Presidential election, we construct two "presidential portfolios" composed of selected stocks anticipated to fare differently under a Bush versus a Gore presidency. To construct these portfolios we use data on campaign contributions by publicly traded corporations and identify the major contributors on each side. Using daily observations for the six months before the election took place, we show that the excess returns of these portfolios with respect to overall market movements are significantly related to changes in electoral polls.
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Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Mattozzi, 2008. "Can we insure against political uncertainty? Evidence from the U.S. stock market," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 43-55, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:137:y:2008:i:1:p:43-55
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-008-9311-0
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    1. Pantzalis, Christos & Stangeland, David A. & Turtle, Harry J., 2000. "Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1575-1604, October.
    2. Marco Celentani & J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Klaus Desmet, 2004. "Endogenous Policy Leads to Inefficient Risk Sharing," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(3), pages 758-787, July.
    3. E. Thompson, 1966. "A pareto optimal group decision process," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 133-140, December.
    4. Pedro Santa‐Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2003. "The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1841-1872, October.
    5. Ayers, Benjamin C & Cloyd, C Bryan & Robinson, John R, 2005. ""Read My Lips . . .": Does the Tax Rhetoric of Presidential Candidates Affect Security Prices?," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(1), pages 125-148, April.
    6. Raymond Fisman, 2001. "Estimating the Value of Political Connections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1095-1102, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political uncertainty; Hedge; Financial markets; D7; G10;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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